-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
431
FXUS61 KALY 030212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1012 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance moving over the region tonight will
increase clouds and bring some isolated showers or sprinkles.  High
pressure builds back in from the northwest to open the week with
mainly dry weather and above normal early June temperatures.
Humidity levels will slightly increase on Tuesday with an isolated
shower or thunderstorm over the higher terrain, as a much stronger
system approaches from the west for late Wednesday through Thursday
with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...As of 1015 PM EDT, shower/sprinkle coverage decreasing
as shortwave across west/central NYS tracks east into drier air
and upper level confluent flow. Still some isolated/scattered
light showers/sprinkles possible for areas mainly west of the
Hudson River through 1 AM, perhaps across portions of southern
VT as well during this time.

Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies much of the night, with some
clearing possible across northern areas toward daybreak.

So with this update, mainly just some minor adjustments to
temps/dewpoints according to latest obs.

[PREVIOUS 358 PM EDT]...As of 358 PM EDT...The mid and upper
level ridge axis near the forecast area over New England
weakens, as a mid level disturbance approaches. The weak warm
front associated with sfc low moving across the eastern Great
Lakes Region has produced a few light showers upstream over
west-central NY. Most of the pcpn continues to dry up moving
east. A few light showers or sprinkles may reach the
Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and the eastern Catskills. We
kept some slight chance PoPs there. The low-level moisture
profiles remain very dry on model soundings.

Mid and high clouds will be abundant and it should be a milder
night than the previous few, as the clouds should prevent ideal
radiative coolings conditions. Lows were favored close to a
METMOS/NBM blend with upper 50s to lower 60s in the major
valleys and 50s mainly over the higher terrain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow, expect the mid and upper level flow to favor ridging
to return over Ontario, the Great Lakes Region and the Midwest
with a sfc anticyclone building in from southeast Canada. Light
north to northwest winds will continue to funnel dry air over
the region with dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s or so.
Humidity levels remain comfortable. H850 temps will be +13C to
+14C based on the latest GFS. Expect partly to mostly sunny
skies. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may pop up over the
southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW
CT late in the afternoon. Max temps will run 5-10 degrees above
normal with a blend of the guidance producing lower to mid 80s
below 1000 ft in elevations and 70s to near 80F readings over
the higher terrain.

Mon night the skies will become mostly clear with light winds as
the sfc high moves over eastern NY and New England. Some
radiational cooling will occur with light to calm winds. Lows
will be mainly in the 50s but some pockets of 40s may occur in
the southern Dacks.

Tue-Tue night...The mid level ridge axis moves over eastern NY
and western New England. The sfc anticyclone drifts toward
eastern New England. A weak sfc trough or a differential heating
boundary may kick off a some isolated showers/thunderstorms
over or near the higher terrain of the Adirondacks, southern
Greens, Berkshires, Taconics and Catskills. PoPs were kept in
the slight to low chance range. Humidity levels slightly
increase with sfc dewpts in the 50s to lower 60s. Highs will be
mainly in the 70s over the higher terrain with a few 80F
readings and lower to mid 80s in the valleys. Any convection
will shrivel with the loss of the diurnal heating. However, an
increase of clouds may occur well after midnight south and west
of the Capital District with some widely scattered showers
ahead of a warm front. Lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shift to a more unsettled weather pattern begins in the mid week,
as ridging over the Northeast begins to break down with a mid and
upper level trough over the central Canadian Prairies becoming
negatively tilted over the Great Lakes Region and the Midwest.  A
weak warm front will increase some clouds with isolated to scattered
showers and the best chance of thunderstorms west of the Hudson
River Valley on Wed.  The medium range guidance and ensembles are
leaning for greater probabilistic chances for showers and scattered
thunderstorms Wed night into Thu with increasing height falls and a
trough of low pressure moving across the region.  PWATs increase to
1 to 2 STDEVS above normal in the 1.25-1.50" range by Thu.  Some of
the showers and thunderstorms may contain locally heavy rainfall.
WPC already has placed the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk
in the Day 5 Excessive Rainfall Graphic.  It will the first
widespread rainfall in over a week.  PoPs were kept in the likely
range on Thu.  Max temps Wed will be in the 70s to lower 80s with
moderate humidity levels.  Lows will be in the mild side Wed night
with mid 50s to mid 60s.  In the unsettled air mass on Thu, expect
highs to be near or slightly below normal with 60s to lower over the
higher terrain and mid 70s to around 80F in the Valleys.

A broad mid and upper level trough sets up over the Great Lakes
Region, southeast Canada into the Northeast.  The H500 circulation
closes off upstream with short-waves moving around it Thu night into
the weekend. In the cyclonic flow, periods/bouts of showers and some
thunderstorms will be possible Fri and Sat into the afternoon.
Depending on the strength of the cold pool some hail may be
possible.  A few of the thunderstorms may be on the stronger side.
The better forcing on Friday may be from the Capital Region north
and west.  CSTAR warm season work has documented the sensible and
significant weather with closed/cut-off lows, as some locations
could receive appreciable rainfall with any showers/thunderstorms
moving repeatedly over the same area.  Lows Thu and Fri night will
be in the 50s to lower 60s.  Highs Friday will be in the mid 60s to
upper 70s with cooler readings in the 60s to lower/mid 70s with the
upper low coming overhead on Saturday.

The track of the mid and upper low poleward over Quebec late in the
weekend or if the closed H500 circulation lingers over eastern NY
and New England will depend on the shower/thunderstorm coverage to
close the weekend.  We have kept isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast with a few thunderstorms possible, as temps finish the
weekend near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level disturbance will track across the region this
evening. Some spotty light showers/sprinkles may affect KGFL,
KALB and KPOU through around 05Z/Mon. However, VFR conditions
should prevail despite any light rainfall.

Will have to watch for brief patchy fog development at KGFL
between 08Z-10Z/Mon. This possibility would be conditional if
mid level clouds clear out during this time. Should this occur,
brief periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys would be possible during this
time.

VFR conditions are likely on Monday with just patchy mid level
clouds at times.

Light south/southwest winds 4-7 KT will become light/variable
tonight, then trend into the north to northeast by late Monday
morning at 5-10 KT.

Outlook...

Monday Night to Tue Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night to Fri: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Frugis/KL