279
FXUS61 KALY 022300
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
700 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Beautiful, early May weather is expected for the remainder of
the work week. Temperatures cool off a bit over the weekend as
chances for showers increase ahead of a frontal system. Dry
conditions return for the beginning of next week before another
frontal system looks to increase shower and possibly
thunderstorm chances beginning Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 700 PM EDT, an upper-level shortwave and weak
surface low will depart the New England coast this evening as
upper- level ridging builds in from the west and surface high
pressure builds southward from Canada overnight. This will
result in dry weather through tonight. Gusty winds from this
afternoon will decrease through the night with the high building
in and shift to a more east to southeasterly direction. There
are indications the clouds across northern New York into New
England may advect westward overnight due to the increased,
moist easterly flow. As a result, patchy low level clouds are
likely to develop overnight resulting in a trend to a partly to
mostly cloudy sky for most areas. The clouds may limit the
potential for valley fog to form but some patchy fog could
develop where there are enough breaks in the clouds. There is
some uncertainty on the most favored areas for this so will
leave out of the forecast at this time and monitor trends.
Temperatures overnight will drop into the 40s to around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The dry trend continues for Friday as the ridge axis builds
across the region. As the aforementioned surface low continues
to drift southward, winds will gradually continue to veer to the
southeast. This shift will likely make tomorrow`s high
temperatures a bit cooler than today, especially in western New
England, as marine influence advects cooler air across the
region. As such, the current forecast shows high temperatures
int the upper 60s to low 70s with low to mid 60s and possibly
upper 50s (high peaks) at higher elevations.

With the turning of the winds comes an expectation that some
marine-layer clouds could spread across the region from
southeast to northwest. However, clouds will also be on the
increase from west to east ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Therefore, the two shields will congeal to form partly
cloudy skies across the region by the early afternoon. Breaks of
sun are still likely, however, with subsidence from the ridge
counteracting developing clouds.

Skies continue to cloud over throughout the evening tomorrow and
into the overnight period as the ridge continues to push further
west. Plenty of cloud cover will make for mild low temperatures
tomorrow night with values progged to be in the upper 40s to low
50s and pockets of mid 40s especially in western New England.

While Saturday will begin dry, shower chances increase beginning
Saturday afternoon as a frontal system settles into the eastern
Great Lakes and an occluded/borderline stationary front becomes
positioned just to the south and west of the region. While some
timing discrepancies exist in the guidance pertaining to the
onset of showers Saturday, general consensus points to a gradual
west to east progression of the precipitation shield beginning
late Saturday afternoon. The track of the boundary and its
parent low will be slowed with the slow exit of the antecedent
ridge, allowing showers to become prolonged into Sunday. At this
time, no thunderstorms are expected as a result of this system
as there is an overall lack of instability across the region.
Additionally, QPF with this precipitation looks to be relatively
light. Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers continue across the region Sunday as the ridge is slow
to exit the New England Coast and low pressure south of the
Hudson Bay helps to reinforce shower activity as its warm sector
dips into our CWA. Expectation remains for little to no
thunderstorm development throughout the day Sunday as little
instability will be present across the region. Showers will
persist throughout much of the day, however, as the low in
Southeast Canada lingers overhead and its eastward-tracking cool
frontal boundary helps to sustain lift. High temperatures Sunday
will be cooler with primarily 50s anticipated across the region.

With the exit of the overhead low and its frontal boundary
Sunday night, high pressure will begin to build in from the
west such that dry conditions will be returned. Low temperatures
Sunday night look to be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Dry weather ensues for the first half of the work week as modest
ridging aloft builds in with the high at the surface. High
temperatures will follow another warming trend Monday and
Tuesday with upper 60s to low/mid 70s Monday and upper 60s to
upper 70s Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances then increase
once again Tuesday night into Wednesday with a warm front
advancing towards the region from the southwest. It is too early
to determine strength of thunderstorms, but will monitor
conditions over the coming days. Highs Wednesday will be similar
to Tuesday with 60s and 70s likely. At this time, Thursday
appears to be dry upon the exit of the warm front with
temperatures also in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the daytime with
gusty westerly winds shifting to the north-northwest by 20 - 22
UTC sustained between 10 and 18kts with gusts up to 30kts.
Mainly clear skies continue tonight with gusty winds weakening
by sunset (23 - 01 UTC). A few occasional gusts up to 15kts
cannot be ruled out through 03 UTC but winds will be trending
weaker. After 03 UTC, winds at all terminals will be light
(under 5kts) and either variable or out of the southeast.

Given radiational cooling and a weak southeast flow ensuing,
some low stratus may develop by 08 - 12 UTC resulting in MVFR
ceilings. Best chance for any MVFR ceilings looks to be PSF but
included tempo groups at all terminals. Any MVFR ceilings should
diminish by or shortly after 12 UTC thanks to our strong May sun
angle. South-southeasterly winds will remain light near 5kts.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Gant/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Speciale