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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 250803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
403 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build in today into tonight, providing cool
but dry conditions and clear skies. The high will only gradually
shift east off the New England coast through Friday night, with
continued dry and cool weather. An approaching warm front may
bring some showers late Saturday into Sunday, before summer like
temperatures arrive on Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A large area of high pressure will build in from the north/west
through today, providing abundant sunshine and a cool light
northerly flow. After a cold start to the day with most of the
area in the 20s/30s, temperatures will warm into the mid/upper
40s in the higher terrain and lower/mid 50s in the valleys due
to the strength of late April sun. Despite diurnal temperature
rises of around 25-30 degrees, highs will still be several
degrees below normal with an anomalously cool air mass in
place(850 mb temperature anomalies -1 to -2 STDEV).

The high will be directly over the region tonight, with winds
becoming calm and continued clear skies. So ideal radiational
conditions will occur, with low temperatures mainly in the 20s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will gradually move east into New England on
Friday, with continued light winds and sunny skies across our
area. Temperatures will start to moderate close to normal levels
for highs in the afternoon, with lower/mid 50s in the mountains
and upper 50s to lower 60s in most lower elevations. Again,
abundant sunshine will occur due to strong subsidence and a very
dry air mass (PWAT anomalies -1 to -2 STDEV).

A slight southerly flow will develop Fri night as high pressure
moves off the New England coast. However, it will be mainly
clear and dry again, so this should result in cool low
temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

An upper level ridge axis will move east across the region on
Sat, while surface high pressure remains south/east of coastal
New England. Dry conditions should prevail through much of the
day. A warm front approaching from the west will bring
increasing clouds during the afternoon. A few showers may occur
late in the day for areas west of the Hudson Valley. Highs
should warm to normal levels as the air mass moderates with
enough sunshine into the afternoon. Southerly winds will
increase as the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts around 15-25
mph expected to develop in the afternoon.

The upper ridge axis is forecast to shift east into New England
Sat night, as the surface warm front lifts northeast across the
region Sat night. This will result in a better chance for some
showers, which look to be mainly scattered in coverage. With the
clouds and showers around, lows will be milder than recent
night with 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The extended forecast period opens with scattered, light
showers, particularly north and west of Albany, as a warm front
tracks across the region from east to west. With mid- to upper-
level ridging dominant across much of the East Coast and high
pressure building across southeast Canada, little moisture will
be available to allow these showers to contribute much in the
way of QPF. Still, Sunday will be a partly to mostly cloudy day
with high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s with west to
southwest flow providing decent advection of warm air.

Lingering showers taper off by Sunday afternoon/evening as the
aforementioned ridge amplifies and the low associated with the
warm front is forced east with the eastward push of the
southeast Canada high. Monday, therefore, looks to be fairly dry
as subsidence increases briefly in response to the increased
strength of the ridge. In addition to dry, Monday also looks to
feature early Summer-like temperatures as the ridge axis moves
overhead and flow aloft backs further to the southwest.
Confidence is increasing in high temperatures in the mid 70s to
low 80s with pockets of low 70s above 2000 ft.

Precipitation chances then increase heading into Tuesday as the
ridge axis shifts east and begins to break down in response to
a low pressure system approaching the Hudson Bay area from the
western Great Lakes. Throughout the day Tuesday, warm air and
moisture advection will increase as the system`s warm front
tracks through the region. Widespread showers are expected to
develop along and ahead of the warm front with the possibility
of some embedded thunderstorms developing in the warm sector
ahead of the close-following cold front. Any developing
thunderstorms would be more likely in the afternoon Tuesday and
would likely die off after sunset due to the loss of diurnal
heating, but showers could linger through Wednesday morning. A
brief break in shower activity then comes Wednesday afternoon
before a shortwave disturbance increases shower potential again
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

High temperatures Tuesday will be similar to Monday with upper
60s to upper 70s across the area. It is possible that some near
80 values be observed in Valley areas, but such is uncertain at
this time with the expectation of greater cloud coverage to
Monday. Wednesday and Thursday will be the cooler days of the
period with 60s to low 70s expected Wednesday and upper 50s to
upper 60s and pockets near 70 Thursday.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 06z Friday...With high pressure dominating the region,
skies are anticipated to remain clear through the entirety of
the 06z TAF period. As such, VFR conditions that currently
prevail at all terminals will persist. Though a prime radiative
cooling environment exists, dry surface conditions paired with
intermittent light breezes across the region negate the concern
for fog development.

Winds throughout the 06z TAF period will prevail out of the
north to northeast to start, but back to the northwest by the
end of the cycle. Sustained speeds of 5-8 kt are expected.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant