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000
FXUS61 KALY 211953
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
353 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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After a chilly night tonight, another cool, breezy and dry day
is expected for Monday with a mostly sunny sky. It will slightly
milder on Tuesday with increasing clouds, before a cold front
returns some rain to the region for Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with colder weather returning for the rest of the
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Upper cold pool and lingering upper energy along with some
moisture off the Great Lakes resulting in widespread clouds.
The upper impulse will exit through the night as low level
ridging will build in from the west and cold advection builds in
from the north. Increasing subsidence is expected to help mix
out the clouds through the night and by daybreak, many areas
should be mostly clear. Winds will diminish to light to calm by
daybreak as well. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s with mid
20s southern Adirondacks and northern Lake George area.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Cold advection through the day Monday with sunshine and steady
west to northwest winds. Highs in the mid 50s to near 60, with
upper 40s to around 50 higher terrain.

Upper trough lifts north and east out of our region Monday night
into Tuesday and warm advection occurs. Low level flow turns to
the south and some high clouds increase Tuesday afternoon, ahead
of the next upper energy. Highs Tuesday in the 60s with upper
50s higher terrain.

Upper closed low drops out of Canada Tuesday night into
Wednesday and phases with another upper impulse approaching from
the Great Lakes. Showers will spread into the region through
Tuesday night and Wednesday should be showery much of the day.
The upper low, upper trough and associated low level cold front
will exit Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures will
likely fall through Wednesday afternoon as coverage of showers
decreases through the afternoon, ending by evening. Highs
Wednesday in the 50s, with 40s in higher terrain, and
temperatures dropping in the afternoon.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Dry weather and increasing sunshine Thursday as a cooler and
drier airmass spreads into the region. Highs in the mid to upper
50s with 40s higher terrain. Gradual warming Friday into
Saturday with upper ridging building in and warm advection.
Highs both days in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lower to mid
50s higher terrain.

There are some disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles as
to the timing of upper energy approaching from the west Toward
next weekend. Some clouds and showers are possible Friday night
into Saturday and Sunday, depending on the timing with
potential stronger warm advection and moisture advection. Highs
Saturday and Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s with a few mid
60s Hudson Valley from the Capital Region southward.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR flying conditions expected through 18 UTC at all the
terminals.

Widespread mid and upper level clouds today have resulted in
ceilings staying around 5-6kft thanks to a disturbance tracking
across the mid-Atlantic and a secondary cold front slowly
approaching from the Adirondacks. As the secondary cold front
arrives from northwest to southeast this afternoon, winds at
GFL, ALB, and PSF will shift to the northwest by 18 - 20 UTC
and increase up to 20kts before reaching POU closer to 21-22
UTC (although winds will only increase up to 15kts). We included
VCSH at GFL and ALB given a few weak reflectivities showing up
on regional radar mosaic but no change to flight conditions will
occur during any sprinkles.

Clouds clear by 00 - 03 UTC as the winds decrease down to 5kts
or less tonight. Yet another boundary looks to skirt the
terminal by 09 - 12 UTC with increased mid-level clouds and
ceilings around 4-5kft returning to GFL, ALB, and PSF for a
brief window along with winds shifting to the north-northwest
and gusting up to 15-20kts.

Clouds clear by 12 - 14 UTC with VFR conditions continuing.
North-northwest winds become sustained 5-10kts with gusts up to
15kts.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Dry weather will be in place across the region for through
Tuesday. While temperatures will be on the cool side through
tomorrow, valley areas should be back into the 60s by Tuesday.
Monday and Tuesday look fairly sunny, but some clouds will
increase by later in the day Tuesday.

On Monday, RH values could be as low as 20 to 30 percent during
the afternoon hours. RH values will again drop on Tuesday into
the 35 to 45 percent range during peak heating.

Winds will be westerly Monday with some gusts 15 to 20 mph in
the afternoon hours. Southerly winds on Tuesday could gust as
high as 25 mph late in the day.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...NAS