-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 221414
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1014 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring cool and dry weather today and cold
conditions tonight. Breezy and milder weather arrives on Tuesday
with increasing clouds. A low pressure system will bring some
rain and a localized high elevation rain snow mix Tuesday night
through Wednesday before drier weather returns for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sunny across the area and 12Z soundings show mixing potential
will result in highs this afternoon right around the current
forecast. Just minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover
through the afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
High pressure will continue to build across the region today and
will result in sunny/mostly sunny conditions as deep mixing and
lowering of dew points look to inhibit much cloud development.
A west to northwesterly breeze will pick up by this afternoon
with some gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range. Highs will range from
the mid to upper 40s across the higher elevations to the 50s in
the valleys. These values are about 5 degrees below normal.

High pressure overhead will promote strong radiational cooling
tonight given the very dry air mass overhead. We trended more
toward the lower MAV/MET MOS values for tonight. Lows look to
fall back to the mid-20s to lower 30s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be situated to our east on Tuesday as
southerly flow will advect a milder air mass into our region. An
increased pressure gradient in the afternoon will result in
breezy conditions developing with some gusts between 20 and 30
mph. Increasing upper-level energy and a surface low pressure
system from our west will bring a gradual increase in mid and
high clouds throughout the day but most areas will remain dry
through the afternoon hours. Highs will top out in the 60s with
some upper 50s across the higher elevations.

An upper-level trough will then cross our region Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Surface low pressure will send a strong cold
front through our region late Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning. Periods of rain will begin across western areas Tuesday
evening and push eastward through Wednesday morning then
taper off from west to east by the afternoon. Cold air racing
in behind the cold front could result in a transition to snow or
a rain/snow mix across some higher elevation areas before
precipitation ends, but little or no accumulation is expected.
Temperatures will reach the 40s and 50s Wednesday morning with
falling temperatures during the afternoon. West to northwesterly
winds will pick up behind the front with some gusts in excess
of 30 mph possible.

Strong cold air advection continues Wednesday night as Canadian
high pressure builds into the region. A trend toward a
clear/mostly clear sky is expected and wind will remain gusty
much of the night before easing toward daybreak. Many areas
will fall into the 20s with some upper teens possible across
the Adirondacks and southern Greens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Below normal temperatures expected on Thursday with a NW flow
regime in place, although surface high pressure will also be
overhead so dry/sunny conditions should occur. Thu night will be
chilly again, with clear skies and light winds leading to ideal
radiational cooling conditions. As high pressure departs off
the New England coast on Friday, a developing southerly flow
should help temperatures moderate back to near normal levels for
highs Fri afternoon. It will be seasonably cool Fri night, but
not as cold as recent nights.

An upper level ridge axis moves east across the region Saturday
morning into the early afternoon with continued dry weather. An
approaching warm front and a disturbance aloft brings the next
chance of showers late Sat afternoon into Sat night. An
additional disturbance may move through on Sunday, with perhaps
a few more showers. Temperatures will likely warm to above
normal levels over the weekend after a cool work week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the 24 hours TAF period, with just a few mid level
clouds around into this morning. Clouds will erode during the
day, with mainly clear skies. High pressure will keep clear
skies in place through tonight.

Winds will be mainly northwest around 10 kt through the daylight
hours, becoming light and variable less than 5 kt this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...RA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will be in place across the region through Tuesday.
While temperatures will be on the cool side today, valley areas
will rebound into the 60s by Tuesday. Mostly sunny conditions
are expected today with a gradual increase in clouds on Tuesday.

Today, RH values will lower to 20 to 30 percent with west to
northwesterly winds gusting 15 to 20 mph. RH values lower to 25
to 35 percent on Tuesday with southerly winds gusting to around
25 mph by the afternoon hours.

A period of rainfall is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
before drier weather returns for the end of the week.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...NAS/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun