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000
FXUS61 KALY 151352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
952 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level disturbance will produce some isolated to
widely scattered showers for areas mainly north of Interstate 90
today, otherwise it will be partly sunny with seasonable
temperatures. High pressure will bring dry and mild weather for
Tuesday and Wednesday, with unsettled weather returning later in the
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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.
UPDATE...As of 950 AM EDT...We let the Dense Fog Advisory
expire with localized dense fog continuing near the Hudson River
Valley from Hudson, Albany north to Glens Falls. We issued and
SPS to replace the NPW and it runs until 11 am. Some localized
areas of dense fog may linger until then.

The 12Z KALY sounding shows a strong low-level radiative
inversion below 925 hPa with the fog/stratus below it. Stronger
winds from aloft and some sunshine should continue to break up
the fog. An upper level disturbance will produce some isolated
to scattered showers mainly across the southern Dacks, Lake
George Region into VT late this morning into the afternoon. It
will become breezy with west/northwest winds 10-20 mph with some
gusts about 30 mph or with mixed clouds and sunshine. Temps
will be seasonable for mid-April.

PREV DISCUSSION [358 AM EDT]...
After any fog lifts, expect partly sunny skies later this
morning through afternoon. Cold air aloft may promote isolated
to scattered rain showers/sprinkles for areas north of I-90
later this morning into the afternoon.

It will become breezy later this afternoon as mixing depth
increases, with some gusts possibly reaching 25-30 mph,
especially within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and
Berkshires, as well as across portions of the SE Catskills, mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT.

Afternoon high temps should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s
within most valley areas, except upper 60s to lower 70s across
the mid Hudson Valley. Higher terrain areas across the southern
Adirondacks and southern VT may only reach the upper 40s to
lower 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Isolated showers/sprinkles may persist across portions of the
southern Adirondacks/southern VT through this evening, otherwise
dry weather is expected through at least Wednesday morning. It
will become breezy once mixing depth increases Tuesday afternoon
once again, with west/northwest winds possibly reaching 25-30
mph across portions of the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and
Berkshires. Lows tonight and Monday night in the mid/upper 20s
to lower 30s across the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson
Valley, with mid 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. Highs Tuesday
afternoon in the lower/mid 60s for valley areas, and 55-60 for
most higher terrain areas.

For Wednesday, latest guidance continues to suggest a slower
arrival of clouds and showers with next system, as upper level
confluent flow keeps high pressure closer to the region. For
now, have a slow increase in clouds, with low chances for
showers across western areas late in the day, while remaining
dry from the Capital Region and points north and east. However,
there remains some uncertainty in the timing of any incoming
showers. Assuming showers hold off, max temps should reach the
upper 50s to lower/mid 60s in valley areas, warmest for the
upper Hudson Valley region.

Showers slowly advance north and east Wednesday night, however
dry air from lingering high pressure may tend to erode showers
from reaching portions of the SE Adirondacks, upper Hudson
Valley and southern VT. Lows mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Thursday with upper troughing to our
west, and an associated surface low tracking north of the Great
Lakes. Upper ridging may help to keep us relatively dry through the
first part of the morning, although chances for showers increase in
the afternoon as the system`s occluded front tracks across the
region. The front will be slow-moving, so some showers could linger
into Thursday night. With more clouds and showers around, it will be
a few to several degrees cooler than Wednesday with highs mainly in
the 40s (terrain) to 50s (valleys) and lows in the 30s to 40s.

Friday into Saturday...Upper troughing slides eastwards, helping to
drive a stronger cold front through the region. There are some
significant timing differences with the frontal passage in numerical
guidance, so at this time will just lean towards the middle ground
NBM solution with the frontal passage daytime Saturday. Regardless
of the exact timing, additional showers are expected with the cold
frontal passage. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier weather is
expected for the second half of the weekend into early next week
with cold/dry advection and high pressure building in from the west.
Temperatures will likely run below normal for this timeframe. The
CPC is expecting near to sightly below normal temperatures and near
to slightly below normal precipitation for days 8 to 14.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Mainly IFR or lower conditions with widespread
fog and low stratus as of 6:30 AM EDT, although low clouds/fog have
at least briefly scattered out at PSF. Overall trend should be for
improving conditions this morning, and current thinking is that all
terminals should see VFR conditions from around 14z onwards.
However, fog and low stratus resulting in IFR conditions could stick
around through around 13z, and have indicated this with tempo groups
at all TAF sites.

Once conditions improve back to VFR this morning, they should remain
VFR through the end of the TAF period. Will see SCT to BKN cigs
through the afternoon with cloud bases around 4000 ft, but clouds
should diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Just
a few passing mid-level clouds expected overnight through 12z
Tuesday.

Winds are light and variable this morning, but increase to around 10
kt from the west by late morning, with some gust to around 20 kt
expected this afternoon. Winds diminish to around 5 kt or less after
sunset, remaining at 5 kt or less mainly from the west through 12z
Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Main