Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 212110
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
410 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Large scale trough lingers over the Panhandles this evening. Some
stray showers continue across the eastern Panhandles. Showers have
been slow moving, so moderate amounts of rain will still be
possible for those areas that the showers reach. Models trying to
generate some convection along the northwest Panhandles this
evening. Soundings indicate this area should be fairly capped, but
there are some cloud breaks along the western Panhandles, and that
might be just enough for rapid heating to reach the convective
temperature. However, given that the area is under a large region
of subsidence it might be difficult to overcome and get storms.
For now have left storms out of the forecast for this evening.

Tonight things will begin to quiet down precipitation wise, but do
expect the return of low clouds, as light north winds will be in
place and temperatures have been pretty close to the dewpoints all
day, it wont take much for low level saturation to occur tonight.
Patch fog has been mentioned shortly after sunset through a little
after sunrise tomorrow.

After the morning low clouds/fog breaks on Sunday, expect a mostly
sunny day, with highs in the 60s, and light winds. Might be a bit
on the cool side through noon to a little after, but should be
quite mild for the afternoon and evening.

Models continue to agree that northwest flow aloft will continue
through Tuesday, when the next system arrives. At this point the
models diverge on solutions quite drastically, putting a high
amount of uncertainty on the extended forecast. Thusly, will not
go into great detail for the extended. Overall, have a chance of
showers and storms from Tuesday through Friday in the forecast.
Tuesday and Wednesday`s highs will be a bit cool, as we expect a
cold front to push south through the Panhandles. Highs will be in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Thursday and Friday should be on a
warming trend with highs in the 70s. Again, there is a lot of
uncertainty in the extended forecast, and it probably will not
rain/storm every day Tue-Fri, this will be fine tuned with the
next several forecast packages. The best blend with what the
models are giving is the current forecast at hand.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...18z TAFS...
Challenging CIG forecast on tap and confidence is somewhat low.
Generally seeing CIGs raising the last few hours but still
holding onto IFR levels in the east with improvement to MVFR
across the west. How quickly conditions improve to MVFR from west
to east and then whether and how quickly IFR CIGs redevelop
overnight is problematic. Generally when with the model consensus
that shows brief break in IFR conditions this aftn to MVFR or even
VFR, with redevelopment of IFR conditions overnight (around or
shortly after midnight). Confidence in timing of the onset of IFR
conditions is somewhat low, but gave it best shot. Didn`t want to
be too pessimistic, but VLIFR is certainly possible all sites
mainly do to low CIGs esp around sunrise. Should see VFR by late
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                38  63  41  74  47 /  10   0   0   0   5
Beaver OK                  39  64  40  72  46 /  20   0   0   0  20
Boise City OK              35  62  38  73  42 /  10   0   0   5  20
Borger TX                  39  65  43  75  49 /  10   0   0   0  20
Boys Ranch TX              37  66  41  78  47 /  10   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  37  66  41  76  47 /  10   0   0   0   5
Clarendon TX               40  64  42  73  47 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 36  64  40  75  45 /  10   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  37  64  39  73  46 /  10   0   0   0  20
Hereford TX                37  67  42  77  47 /   5   0   0   0   5
Lipscomb TX                40  64  41  72  48 /  20   0   0   0  30
Pampa TX                   39  61  42  72  48 /  10   0   0   0  20
Shamrock TX                42  67  42  73  49 /  10   0   0   0  20
Wellington TX              42  68  44  74  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/88


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