Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 191943
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
243 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over far northwest Kansas will slowly drift
northeast and dissipate over the western Great Lakes by Monday
afternoon.  An upper level jet streak is found from the southern
Texas Panhandle northeast into northeast Kansas in association with
this upper low.  The southeast Texas Panhandle will be in the right
entrance region of this upper jet and a cold front is also found in
this area.  Plenty of low level moisture is also found in the far
southeast Texas Panhandle ahead of this front. Therefore, the best
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast
Texas Panhandle overnight. A few showers and thunderstorms may try
to make a run at the northwest CWA as westerly flow aloft brings
mountain convection this way. Models are in disagreement on just how
robust this convection will be and they also do not agree on the
coverage.  For now will cover this northwest convection with 30 and
40 percent pops.

Not sure about our shower and thunderstorm chances for Sunday.  Next
cold front will come blasting through tonight and this should just
about wipe out our instability.  Plus we could have low clouds for
much of the day which will keep temperatures down. Temperatures will
probably stay in the 40s in northeast Colorado and the southern
Nebraska Panhandle today under the shield of rain on the west side
of the upper low. So, this is a fairly cool air mass for mid May
moving toward our area.

On Monday, our area is between upper air disturbances and this too
could keep our shower and thunderstorm activity at bay. However,
mountain convection should move into our area Monday night.

The southwest flow aloft increases Tuesday and Wednesday so this
will help in the shear department and this should help increase our
shower and thunderstorm coverage.

An upper level ridge builds across the Panhandles Thursday and
Friday, so will keep pops out for now.

After a "cool" start to the forecast, temperatures should go above
average by the middle part of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                52  68  57  79  60 /  20  10  20  10  30
Beaver OK                  53  69  56  83  62 /  30  10  10  10  10
Boise City OK              47  66  54  80  57 /  40   5  20  10  30
Borger TX                  53  72  58  83  62 /  20  10  20  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              53  69  57  80  60 /  20  10  20  10  30
Canyon TX                  53  67  57  79  59 /  20  10  30  10  40
Clarendon TX               56  68  60  78  61 /  80  20  30  20  30
Dalhart TX                 49  70  54  79  57 /  20   5  20  10  30
Guymon OK                  50  72  56  84  60 /  40   5  20  10  10
Hereford TX                53  65  56  77  59 /  20  10  30  10  40
Lipscomb TX                54  67  57  82  62 /  50  10  20  10  10
Pampa TX                   51  68  57  80  60 /  50  10  20  10  20
Shamrock TX                57  70  61  81  62 /  80  20  30  20  20
Wellington TX              59  72  62  81  63 /  80  20  30  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

24/15


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