Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 160522
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Cycle:

Expect VFR conditions through the period. Winds will gradually
veer from southeast to southwest through about 12Z. Southwest
winds will increase into the 15 to 25 knot range from late morning
through the afternoon Monday, then drop off to 10 to 15 knots
during the evening.

Ward

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 308 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Warm and windy weather expected for the start of the work week
across the Panhandles. Southerly winds on Monday and westerly
winds on Tuesday will help raise high temperatures into the 80s
and 90s each day. The strong winds on Tuesday could even require a
Wind Advisory. Also an isolated gust to 60 mph can`t be ruled out.
Regardless we will be looking at Fire Weather concerns on both
days.

Tuesday night a cold front pushes through the Panhandles to drop
our temperatures back into the 60s and 70s. While the start of the
day could be a little breezy, winds will be dropping throughout
the day. A quick switch around in the winds out of the south is
expected Wednesday night.

Thursday and Friday continue to show potential for precip. With
that being said, differences in model solutions will have
significant impacts on precip type and coverage. The GFS kept the
upper low ejecting from the Southern Rockies far enough north to
keep the potential for thunderstorms across the Panhandles on
Thursday night and Friday. The ECMWF as an alternative sends the
low further south which limits our thunderstorm potential and
introduces the potential for snow on the northern and back side of
the system. For now will hold onto the potential for thunder for
now.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across
the majority of the Panhandles on Monday. Critical to extremely
critical fire weather conditions are expected across the
Panhandles on Tuesday. Change from previous forecast was to
increase the gust potential across the western and northwestern
portions of the combined Panhandles. Forecast soundings show the
potential for an isolated gust up to 60 mph. With that being said,
the majority of the area could see gusts up to 50 to 55 mph. There
is potential for a Wind Advisory to be issued for the western
zones, as sustained winds will likely remain below High Wind
Warning criteria. A cold front remains on schedule to move across
the Panhandles Tuesday evening. This will be a fairly quick wind
shift out of the northwest starting around 8 PM CDT and exiting
the southeastern Texas Panhandle around midnight.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Hansford...Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Sherman.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to midnight CDT Tuesday
     night for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...
     Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...
     Sherman...Wheeler.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...
     Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to midnight CDT Tuesday
     night for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

7/3



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