Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 212038
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
338 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A southwest flow aloft will continue through much of this week. Then
a ridge is expected to build over the Rockies by late this week into
the weekend. Therefore, the flow aloft will transition from
southwest to northwest.

The western half of the Panhandles will be generally favored for
showers and thunderstorms under the southwest flow aloft since any
mountain convection has a long way to go to make into the Panhandles
before we loose the instability from the daytime heating. When we
transition to a northwest flow aloft, then more of the area may see
showers and thunderstorms as the convection initiation point
(ie...Raton Mesa) will be closer to the region.

Now with that said, that does not account for the occasional outflow
boundary or MCV which could help set off convection on the opposite
side from the expected initiation point.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                61  82  62  84  62 /  20  20  30  30  30
Beaver OK                  63  88  65  88  66 /  10  20  30  30  20
Boise City OK              58  81  59  85  61 /  30  20  20  20  20
Borger TX                  63  85  64  87  65 /  10  20  30  30  20
Boys Ranch TX              61  84  61  86  62 /  30  30  40  30  30
Canyon TX                  60  83  61  85  62 /  20  20  30  40  40
Clarendon TX               62  85  64  86  64 /  10  20  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 58  81  59  85  60 /  40  30  30  20  30
Guymon OK                  61  86  62  88  64 /  10  30  20  20  30
Hereford TX                60  82  61  84  61 /  30  30  40  40  40
Lipscomb TX                62  88  65  87  66 /   5  20  30  20  20
Pampa TX                   61  84  62  84  63 /  10  20  20  30  20
Shamrock TX                62  87  65  88  66 /   5  20  20  20  20
Wellington TX              64  88  66  88  67 /   5  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

24/15



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