Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171146
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
646 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions expected through period with high clouds decreasing
through the day. Wind shear is looking marginal this morning as
the better low level jet is positioned east of KAMA. That being
said, about 30kts of low level shear is possible at KAMA through
12z-14z. Otherwise, southwest winds will stay in the 10 to 15
knot range through about 15z, then become gusty and increase into
the 20 to 30 knot range. The strongest winds will peak around mid-
afternoon into the early evening with 40 to 45 knot gusts
expected at all terminals. An airport weather warning will most
likely be needed for KAMA Tuesday afternoon. Wind gusts could
approach 50 knots at KDHT and KGUY. A Pacific Front is expected
to shift winds to the northwest between 00z and 03z. Winds should
gradually begin to decrease after sunset, but gusts of 30-40 knots
may continue through 05z-06z.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 518 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Very strong winds and unseasonably warm conditions will be the
rule today along with areas of blowing dusts across the western
third to half of the forecast area this afternoon. Upper trough
will push east across the northern and central Rockies today and
then approaching the northern and central Plains states by this
evening. Deepening surface low over eastern Colorado will track
into western Kansas by this afternoon. Cold front stretching near
or across the Oklahoma Panhandle will retreat back into southwest
Kansas today before finally making its final push across the
forecast area this evening and overnight tonight. Highs today will
be near record values mainly across the central and southern
Texas Panhandle. Highs Wednesday will be some 20 degrees cooler
behind the front as cool surface ridge builds into the Panhandles
tonight and Wednesday.

Upper ridge builds over the forecast area by late Wednesday into
Thursday ahead of an approaching southern stream closed upper low.
The slow moving closed upper low will approach the Four Corners
region Friday bringing increasing chances for convection late this
week into this weekend. Despite the slower timing of the upper
system by the medium range models, total precipitation amounts may
approach an inch or more across much of the Panhandles by Saturday
night and Sunday morning. The closed upper low will track east
across the southern Rockies by Saturday and then across the South
Plains region by Saturday night. Cold front to push across the
forecast area late this week or early this weekend with sharply
cooler but finally wetter conditions expected. Drier with a
gradual warming trend late this weekend into early next week
before another cold front and upper trough arrive late Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Additional chances for convection possible
Tuesday night.

Schneider

FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across all of the Panhandles as an upper trough tracks east
into the northern and central Rockies later today and allows a
surface low over eastern Colorado to deepen today. Weather
parameters resemble the Southern Plains Wildfire Outbreak
Composite Map as the surface low is expected to push into western
Kansas this afternoon with a cold front across southwest and
southern Kansas near the Oklahoma Panhandle. 850 mb thermal ridge
over the Panhandles today and 700 mb 40 to 45 knot southwesterly
jet with 500 mb west southwesterly 60 to 65 knot jet across the
South Plains region is expected along with a 300 mb southwesterly
80+ knot jet. Dry line over eastern New Mexico will mix well east
across the forecast area by late morning and early afternoon into
Oklahoma. RFTIs of 7 to 8 and minimum afternoon humidities as low
as 4 to 5 percent are expected today along with downsloping
southwest to westerly winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts near 50 to
65 mph by early this afternoon.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM CDT Wednesday
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...
     Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...
     Sherman...Wheeler.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Deaf
     Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...
     Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Wheeler.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     the following zones: Dallam...Hartley...Moore...Oldham...
     Sherman.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM CDT Wednesday
     for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Beaver.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

7/11



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