Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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873
FXUS64 KAMA 200523
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1223 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.AVIATION...06Z TAFs...VFR conditions is expected to prevail at
all terminals, though we will be monitoring for brief MVFR CIGs as
stratus filters in behind a cold front at KDHT BTWN 20/12Z thru
20/20Z. Otherwise, northerly winds around 15 to 25 kts should
taper off by 20/12Z and become more southerly at all terminals
around 20/18Z return surface flow begins. Otherwise, no VIS
restrictions are expected during the forecast period.

Bieda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  57  79  60  79 /  10  20  10  30  30
Beaver OK                  70  56  83  62  84 /  10  10  10  10  30
Boise City OK              67  54  80  57  81 /   5  20  10  30  30
Borger TX                  73  58  83  62  82 /  10  20  10  20  30
Boys Ranch TX              70  57  80  60  82 /  10  20  10  30  30
Canyon TX                  68  57  79  59  80 /  10  30  10  40  30
Clarendon TX               69  60  78  61  80 /  20  30  20  30  30
Dalhart TX                 71  54  79  57  81 /   5  20  10  30  30
Guymon OK                  73  56  84  60  83 /   5  20  10  10  30
Hereford TX                66  56  77  59  80 /  10  30  10  40  30
Lipscomb TX                68  57  82  62  83 /  10  20  10  10  30
Pampa TX                   69  57  80  60  80 /  10  20  10  20  30
Shamrock TX                71  61  81  62  83 /  20  30  20  20  30
Wellington TX              73  62  81  63  84 /  20  30  20  20  30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over far northwest Kansas will slowly drift
northeast and dissipate over the western Great Lakes by Monday
afternoon.  An upper level jet streak is found from the southern
Texas Panhandle northeast into northeast Kansas in association with
this upper low.  The southeast Texas Panhandle will be in the right
entrance region of this upper jet and a cold front is also found in
this area.  Plenty of low level moisture is also found in the far
southeast Texas Panhandle ahead of this front. Therefore, the best
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast
Texas Panhandle overnight. A few showers and thunderstorms may try
to make a run at the northwest CWA as westerly flow aloft brings
mountain convection this way. Models are in disagreement on just how
robust this convection will be and they also do not agree on the
coverage.  For now will cover this northwest convection with 30 and
40 percent pops.

Not sure about our shower and thunderstorm chances for Sunday.  Next
cold front will come blasting through tonight and this should just
about wipe out our instability.  Plus we could have low clouds for
much of the day which will keep temperatures down. Temperatures will
probably stay in the 40s in northeast Colorado and the southern
Nebraska Panhandle today under the shield of rain on the west side
of the upper low. So, this is a fairly cool air mass for mid May
moving toward our area.

On Monday, our area is between upper air disturbances and this too
could keep our shower and thunderstorm activity at bay. However,
mountain convection should move into our area Monday night.

The southwest flow aloft increases Tuesday and Wednesday so this
will help in the shear department and this should help increase our
shower and thunderstorm coverage.

An upper level ridge builds across the Panhandles Thursday and
Friday, so will keep pops out for now.

After a "cool" start to the forecast, temperatures should go above
average by the middle part of the week.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/98



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