Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period.
Northwesterly winds this morning will give way to westerly winds
this afternoon of 10-15 kts. Winds will then shift to
southeasterly and easterly of 5-10 kts toward the end of the TAF
period as a surface trough develops to the west of the TAF sites.
This may keep winds steady around 10 kts out of the east for KAMA
through to the end of the TAF period, otherwise light and variable
winds after 06Z for the remaining TAF sites under mostly clear



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

Dry forecast continues for next seven days.  Fire weather
concerns return Friday and this weekend.

Northwest flow aloft over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
transitions continues through Thursday as low-amplitude mid-level
ridge currently over western CONUS slowly translates eastward.
On Thursday night, this ridge expected to cross the forecast area,
with southwest flow aloft setting up ahead of a digging shortwave
trof over the western CONUS.  A leading shortwave trof may reach
the Panhandles on Monday, with main trof axis still over Desert

At the surface, lee trof develops today over eastern New Mexico,
with southwest winds resuming.  A weak cold front moves into
northern sections late this afternoon and this evening.  Light
winds are expected most of the day on Wednesday and Thursday, as
minor shortwave trofs bring weak frontal boundaries into the
forecast area.

On Friday, as southwest flow aloft becomes established, deepening
lee trof moves into Panhandles, with southwest winds increasing.
Pacific cold front passes Friday night, with lee trof developing
again Saturday.  On Sunday, dryline sets up well east of
Panhandles, with cold front moving into northern sections.  Cold
front moves through all of forecast area Sunday night, with
slightly cooler conditions on Monday.  03


No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected today
through Thursday.  Winds today will generally remain below 15 MPH
today, Wednesday and Thursday.  Dry southwest winds resume on
Friday, with elevated to critical fire weather conditions likely
to develop on Friday, with the western two-thirds of the
Panhandles being at greatest risk for critical fire weather
conditions.  Elevated to possibly critical fire weather
conditions may develop on Saturday, mainly across the southwest
half of the Combined Panhandles, as southwest winds increase
during the afternoon.  Elevated fire weather conditions will be
possible on Sunday, mainly across northern, western and
southwestern parts of the Combined Panhandles, where stronger
winds are expected.  Light to moderate north winds are expected
on Monday, with no elevated or critical fire weather conditions
expected.  03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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