Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 190603

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
103 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

06Z TAF Cycle:

Expect VFR conditions through the period with high clouds
increasing towards Thursday afternoon/evening. Light surface
winds continue to slowly veer to the southeast and will increase
by late morning with 15 to 20 knot magnitudes common through the



PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018/

Another dry day is store for tomorrow with elevated fire weather
conditions for some locations. This will be followed by a chance
of some widespread precipitation for Friday and Saturday.

Latest 18/12Z hi-res model and probabilistic guidance shows a
surface high developing over the upper Mississippi River Valley
in-conjunction with a surface low over the central Rockies by
tomorrow afternoon. With an upper level ridge moving over the
Panhandles in-conjunction with the lower level features, a
tightening surface gradient will setup across the western
Panhandles with some gusty south to southwest winds in the
afternoon with elevated fire weather conditions possible.
Otherwise, another dry day across the region with high temps
ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Going into the day on Friday, a southern stream upper level low
pressure system will make its way across the Four Corners region.
Some showers and some isolated thunderstorms are possible across
the far western Panhandles out ahead of the main system as the
latest log-p schematics show limited elevated convection across
the aforementioned area of around 500 J/Kg. With the system
tracking slightly slower than the previous model runs, the main
segment of the precipitation will move west to east across the
area along the perturbations within the cyclonic circulation of
the main upper level low starting late Friday night through the
day on Saturday. Elevated convection cannot be ruled out on
Saturday, but should be limited with overcast skies and cooler
temperatures limiting surface instability. QPF amounts and timing
of system will be updated as we get closer to Friday. Highs on
Friday and Saturday will drop into the 50s.

Northwesterly mid level flow will return Sunday and continue into
the remainder of the forecast period. Long range model guidance
hints at some additional precipitation along a cold front moving
through the region during the second half of the day on Tuesday
toward the end of the forecast period, but chances remain low at
this time. High temperatures will return closer to normal by early
next week.


Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected through
the remainder of the afternoon hours before winds diminish this

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the far
western areas on Thursday, especially in the afternoon hours as
min RH values drop to between 15-20% along with southerly winds
of 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts in the afternoon hours.

Starting Friday, fire weather conditions should diminish as low
level moisture and precipitation should increase across the entire



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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