Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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855
FXUS64 KAMA 211136
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
636 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.AVIATION...12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail at all
terminals through the period, though there is some low stratus
close to KAMA that could move over the site around 21/12Z thru
21/16Z. Otherwise, southerly winds will increase to BTWN 5 to 15
kts with gusts up to 25 kts through 22/00Z and dropping off after
sunset. Latest hi-resolution guidance suggests that a line of
thunderstorms could approach KDHT BTWN 22/03Z-22/07Z and KAMA/KGUY
BTWN 22/07Z-22/10Z. Have handled this with PROB30 groups for now
as confidence is not high enough to have as prevailing category.

Bieda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                82  59  79  61  84 /  10  50  30  30  30
Beaver OK                  86  63  86  64  88 /   5  10  30  40  30
Boise City OK              83  58  80  59  87 /  10  40  20  20  20
Borger TX                  85  62  82  64  87 /  10  30  30  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              85  59  80  61  87 /  20  50  20  30  20
Canyon TX                  81  59  79  60  85 /  10  50  20  30  30
Clarendon TX               81  61  80  62  84 /  10  20  30  30  30
Dalhart TX                 83  57  80  58  86 /  20  40  20  30  20
Guymon OK                  85  60  84  62  89 /   5  30  30  20  20
Hereford TX                81  58  78  59  85 /  20  60  20  30  30
Lipscomb TX                85  62  84  65  87 /  10  10  30  50  30
Pampa TX                   81  59  80  61  84 /  10  20  30  30  30
Shamrock TX                83  61  83  64  85 /  10  20  30  50  30
Wellington TX              84  63  84  65  87 /  10  20  20  40  30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 425 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Another quiet day today, but thunderstorms could return later this
evening. Removed the mention of fog for this morning, as easterly
flow is weak, and temp dewpoint spread is not moving much. Areas
in central and southwest Kansas have the potential for dense fog,
as satellite currently shows. It`s possible that the northeast
Panhandles may see some low clouds/fog early today, before
breaking free of these by late morning. Confidence is not high
enough to mention, thusly not in the current forecast.  It looks
more favorable for a late tonight to overnight period for the
thunderstorms. Showers and storms will start off over the
mountains of NM and are expected to become more of a line later
tonight. Have increased pops across the western zones.

Southwest flow will continue through the week, with a westerly
flow transition on Thursday evening into Friday. High pressure
will continue to build over the AZ/NM area, and as it builds the
west flow will transition to northwest flow. Best chance for a
break in storms will be on Thursday and Friday as the flow shifts,
however there is still a chance for storms during this period. As
northwest flow sets in the chance for summertime thunderstorms
under northwest flow will be there each day. Temperatures by the
time we reach the end of the week will be in the 90s across many
areas. Some models are suggesting the possibility of temperatures
exceeding 100 degrees over the weekend. While coverage of
thunderstorms is still uncertain, any storm that develop this week
could be strong and possibly severe.

Weber

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

98/89



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