546
FXUS64 KAMA 050818
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
318 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will linger, mainly across
the northern Panhandles this morning in association with an upper
level short wave moving over.  Otherwise...it is expected to be dry
this afternoon and much of tonight.

A negatively tilted upper level trough will sweep across the Great
Basin tonight and will move across Colorado and into western South
Dakota by late Monday afternoon.  A strong low level jet will
develop over our northwest sections tonight as the base of the
trough sweeps over this area.  We will have to watch to see if any
of these strong winds can be brought down to the surface.  Also,
would not be surprised to see a shower develop over the northwest
CWA tonight as low level WAA and moisture advection help out.  A
dryline is expected to move from west to east across the Panhandles
during the day Monday. If the dryline stalls in our eastern
Panhandles, then there will be a chance of severe thunderstorms in
our area. But the majority of the models want to push it into
western Oklahoma before thunderstorms develop.

15

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
again on Tuesday due to warm, windy, and dry conditions. A series
of cold fronts are forecast for mid to late week which will cool
temperatures back down to the 60s and 70s. Precipitation chances
may return to portions of the forecast area this weekend.

By Tuesday, zonal flow is forecast for the southern CONUS while a
H500 center of low pressure remains across the Northern Plains
through late this week. At the surface, west to southwest winds
are likely once again on Tuesday. Humidity recovery on Tuesday
morning will not be all that great, so elevated to critical fire
weather conditions are likely once again on Tuesday for the
central and west. The first of two cold fronts looks to move down
across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Only a
slight cool down is expected behind the first front as it is not
all that strong.

Thursday looks to be a relatively mild day with northeast winds
and cooler temperatures in the 70s. The second cold front should
move across the Plains late on Thursday and is forecast to be
through the entire area by very early Friday morning. Breezy north
winds look possible behind this front as it is stronger. Friday
looks to be the coolest day of the next week. Forecast models
deviate on how the progression of an upper level cutoff low will
transition late this week into early next week. If the low can
move far enough east, the lift provided by the low may generate
showers and storms for the Southern High Plains this weekend. Have
kept NBM PoPs given high uncertainty in timing and placement of
this feature at this time.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

IFR conditions at AMA and MVFR conditions at DHT and GUY should
lift into the VFR range be around mid day. Winds will remain
around 10 knots or less through about mid day, then they will pick
up out of the south at 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts. Southeast
winds will then continue at 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts this
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the western
and central Oklahoma Panhandle and the western Texas Panhandle on
Monday.  Lowest relative humidity values will be below 10 percent
and southwest winds will be up in the 20 to 30 mph range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74  58  83  48 /  10  10  10   0
Beaver OK                  74  57  86  46 /  10  10  20   0
Boise City OK              75  55  78  42 /  30  10   0   0
Borger TX                  78  60  86  50 /  10  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              79  60  83  45 /  10  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  76  58  82  46 /  10  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               72  58  85  52 /  20  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 76  54  80  40 /  20  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  75  56  83  44 /  10  10  10   0
Hereford TX                78  59  83  46 /   0  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                73  58  85  50 /  20  10  20   0
Pampa TX                   72  59  84  49 /  10  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                72  57  86  52 /  20  10  20   0
Wellington TX              74  58  87  52 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...15