Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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440
FXUS64 KAMA 220543
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1243 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...
VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Exceptions will be KDHT, which may see some storms here
around 7z. Lightning is slowly progressing eastward toward the TAF
site, and although the conditions seem to favor thunderstorms to
diminish here soon, due to the close proximity of the lightning
(about 15SM away from the TAF site), have decided to note a tempo
for -TSRA. Have also gone with a PROB30 group from 21z-03z for all
sites as evening thunderstorms will again be possible on Tuesday.
General flow at the taf sites will be southerly, but outflows from
tonights storms could shift the wind directions briefly. KDHT has
already been affected by this, and KAMA might see this after 7z,
KGUY will likely not be affected.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A southwest flow aloft will continue through much of this week. Then
a ridge is expected to build over the Rockies by late this week into
the weekend. Therefore, the flow aloft will transition from
southwest to northwest.

The western half of the Panhandles will be generally favored for
showers and thunderstorms under the southwest flow aloft since any
mountain convection has a long way to go to make into the Panhandles
before we loose the instability from the daytime heating. When we
transition to a northwest flow aloft, then more of the area may see
showers and thunderstorms as the convection initiation point
(ie...Raton Mesa) will be closer to the region.

Now with that said, that does not account for the occasional outflow
boundary or MCV which could help set off convection on the opposite
side from the expected initiation point.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  84  62  88  63 /  30  30  30  20   5
Beaver OK                  65  88  66  92  66 /  30  30  20  30   5
Boise City OK              59  85  61  89  60 /  20  20  20  20   0
Borger TX                  64  87  65  91  66 /  30  30  20  20   5
Boys Ranch TX              61  86  62  90  63 /  40  30  30  20   0
Canyon TX                  61  85  62  88  62 /  30  40  40  20   5
Clarendon TX               64  86  64  89  63 /  20  20  20  20  10
Dalhart TX                 59  85  60  89  60 /  30  20  30  20   0
Guymon OK                  62  88  64  92  64 /  20  20  30  20   0
Hereford TX                61  84  61  88  62 /  40  40  40  20   5
Lipscomb TX                65  87  66  90  66 /  30  20  20  20   5
Pampa TX                   62  84  63  88  64 /  20  30  20  20   5
Shamrock TX                65  88  66  89  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
Wellington TX              66  88  67  89  65 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/15



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