Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

000
FXUS64 KAMA 232141
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
441 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have formed off the mountains across eastern NM and
may make way across the northwest Panhandles over the next few
hours. Don`t expect that these will continue to survive after
much after sunset, if they hold together that long.

Cold front expected to move across the Panhandles during the day
tomorrow. Temperatures will be a bit tricky as the some models
suggest a slower progression of the front with the heating of the
day. Possible the front may stall out across the central and
northern Panhandles in the afternoon, but then push south by the
evening. There is a pretty stout cap across the southern
Panhandles tomorrow afternoon ahead of the front, but there may be
some forcing ahead of the front to get storms going near our
southern counties. 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE available mid afternoon
tomorrow, should we be able to tap into that energy, but the CAM`s
do not show anything as of now for this area. All precipitation
that`s being generated is post frontal. Thusly will be a cold
rain, with very low chances of thunder, given a fairly stable
sounding behind the front. While all areas have a chance for rain,
the east is where the models are focusing the highest rainfall
amounts.

North winds behind the front across the western Panhandles will
be breezy, might even be close to advisory level, but still not
confident enough to issue. Will allow the midnight shift to take a
closer look and see if highlights will be needed.

Most of Wednesday will be cool, cloudy, and in the 60s for the
Panhandles. We start to move under the influence of an upper level
ridge on Thursday and thus, the temperatures will be on a rise,
with upper 60s to mid 70s across the Panhandles. Another weak
frontal system expected to clip the area on Thursday night into
Friday, this will cool temperatures just a bit on Friday, but not
by much as the ridge quickly strengthens over the area on Friday
evening. Still overall highs on Friday in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

Model solutions start to diverge a bit from here, and make for a
challenging forecast for the weekend. Given the GFS trending
towards the ECMWF in more recent runs, have hedged toward a
drier weekend, since that is what the EC has been consistent with.
Will note, a slight chance of thunderstorms across the southwest
Panhandles on Saturday.

Models do hint and some convective activity into early next week,
so stay close to the forecast at the end of this week and over the
weekend to see what might be in store for next week.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR Conditions expected through the period. Can`t completely rule
out an isolated shower or perhaps some distant thunder in the
KDHT vicinity this evening as a weak/short lived storm or two
could develop along the Raton Mesa. Otherwise, winds will
generally be south to southeasterly and light until the front
arrives tomorrow. Winds are expected to increase and switch to the
north a KDHT first, followed by KGUY and KAMA towards the end of
this TAF cycle. The north winds will increase into the 20 to 30
knot range with higher gusts possible behind the front as mid
level clouds also increase.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                48  66  40  61  41 /   5  20  60  30   5
Beaver OK                  47  60  40  61  40 /  10  50  60  20   5
Boise City OK              43  51  36  61  40 /  20  10  30  10   5
Borger TX                  50  65  41  63  43 /  10  30  60  30   5
Boys Ranch TX              47  63  41  64  41 /  10  10  40  20   5
Canyon TX                  47  68  40  61  41 /   5  20  50  30   5
Clarendon TX               48  71  42  63  41 /   5  20  80  40   5
Dalhart TX                 45  57  38  62  40 /  20  10  30  10   5
Guymon OK                  45  54  39  62  40 /  20  50  50  20   5
Hereford TX                47  68  40  62  41 /   5  10  40  20   5
Lipscomb TX                48  67  42  62  41 /  10  50  80  40   5
Pampa TX                   48  65  39  61  41 /   5  40  80  40   5
Shamrock TX                49  71  44  62  42 /   5  30  80  50   5
Wellington TX              49  74  46  64  42 /   5  20  80  50   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/7



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.