Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 161742 CCA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF Cycle:

VFR next 24 hours. Breezy conditions will see a bit of a respite
overnight before ramping up on Tuesday. LLWS is expected overnight
as southerly flow increases above a modest inversion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 457 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Winds and fire weather concerns remain at the forefront of the
forecast today and especially Tuesday.  Chances for rain and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Saturday night.

Models and ensembles in good agreement in the near-term.  A mid-
level ridge traverses the area today as western CONUS trof
intensifies, with southwest flow aloft resuming by day`s end.

On Tuesday, the long wave trof crosses the Rockies, with
tightening gradients expected.  Winds will increase notably on
Tuesday, with a wind advisory or high wind warning possibly being
needed.  Surface trof which develops today over eastern New
Mexico expected to deepen during the day.  Surface
trof/developing dryline deepens further on Tuesday as it sweeps
across the Panhandles.  Pacific cold front follows in the early
evening, with winds shifting to northwest.  Northwest winds
remain strong well into the evening.

On Wednesday, north winds diminish and turn to south as next lee
trof takes shape.  Gulf opens with low-level moisture returning
into eastern New Mexico and western Panhandles on Thursday as
strong closed mid-level low crosses the Great Basin.  Strong
dynamics with incoming closed low induces strong low-level
southeast flow, with influx of Gulf moisture Thursday night and
Friday.  Chances for rain and thunderstorms look very good Friday
and Friday night.  Uncertainty remains regarding timing of
passage of dryline Friday evening.  Appears that polar cold front
will pass Friday night or early Saturday, with chances for a cold
rain on Saturday across mainly the northeast half of the forecast
area as closed low moves across or near the Oklahoma Panhandle,
with a decent amount of wrap-around moisture expected.  Light
rain may linger into Saturday night as system departs.  Sunday
looks to be dry with highs in the 60s.  03

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry southwest and south winds will increase today, with critical fire
weather conditions expected over all of the Panhandles except for the
eastern one-third of the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northeast and
east-central part of the Texas Panhandle.  Southwest winds will
increase notably on Tuesday with critical to extremely critical fire
weather conditions expected over all of the Panhandles.  These
conditions will begin mid-morning on Tuesday, and persist through
the afternoon and evening, before ending in the early morning hours
of Wednesday.  Winds will shift to the northwest Tuesday evening as
a Pacific cold front arrives.  North winds Wednesday morning
diminish and become southeast Wednesday evening.
Low-level moisture return is expected Thursday and Thursday
night, with chances for rain easing fire weather concerns Friday
through Sunday.  03

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

55


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