Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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733
FXUS64 KAMA 262308
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
608 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through most of
the TAF period, though concerns for thunderstorms exist AFT
27/18Z. The dryline has retreated west of all terminals with
southeast winds BTWN 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts expected
through Sunday afternoon. Due to moisture in place, thunderstorms
are possible at all 3 terminals. With this issuance, have added
PROB30 group for KGUY as highest confidence is there for
thunderstorm activity. Uncertainty exists for KAMA and KDHT as to
whether any thunderstorms will occur either in vicinity or over
terminals, so have withheld mention at this time.

Bieda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               100  66  96  67  94 /   0   0  20  10  20
Beaver OK                  97  68  96  69  93 /   0   0  10  30  30
Boise City OK              98  64  95  62  93 /   0   0  20  10  20
Borger TX                  99  69  97  71  95 /   0   0  30  10  20
Boys Ranch TX             101  65  97  66  97 /   0   0  20  10  20
Canyon TX                 101  65  98  65  96 /   0   0  20  10  20
Clarendon TX               98  66  96  69  94 /   5   0  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 98  62  96  63  95 /   0   0  20  10  20
Guymon OK                  99  66  97  67  94 /   0   0  30  20  30
Hereford TX               100  61  97  64  96 /   0   0  20  10  20
Lipscomb TX                96  67  95  71  93 /   0   0   5  20  20
Pampa TX                   95  67  94  67  91 /   0   0  20  10  20
Shamrock TX                97  68  96  71  94 /   0   0   0  20  20
Wellington TX             100  70  99  72  96 /   0   0   0  20  10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 426 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast remains largely unchanged.  Very warm conditions
expected with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above
normal through Wednesday, with Thursday and Friday forecast to be
15 to 20 degrees above climo.  Dry tonight and Sunday morning,
with chances for thunderstorms resuming Sunday afternoon.

Diffluent mid-level flow sets up on Sunday with the departure of
500 mb ridge.  Broad cyclonic flow expected to continue through
at least Tuesday over Panhandles as Great Basin closed low lifts
to northern High Plains.  Mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms expected Sunday and Monday as disturbances in
southwest flow aloft may help instability to be released along
dryline.  Low-level jet expected to assist in potential inflow to
thunderstorms during the evenings.

Models disagree with low-level features Tuesday and beyond.
Resulting pops offered by Blend Tuesday and Wednesday have been
reduced and confined to eastern and northwestern sections,
respectively.  Splotchy Blended pops Thursday, Friday and Friday
night have been kept out of forecast, as rising mid-level heights
expected to lead to dry hot weather Thursday and beyond.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Palo Duro Canyon.

OK...None.

&&

$$

98



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