Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220935
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
435 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

For today and tonight, areas of fog development, possibly dense at
times, will continue this morning across mainly the eastern half
of the area where winds are lightest and moisture profiles are a
bit deeper. Any fog that does form is expected to dissipate by
around late morning. A cold front will move across the OK and TX
Panhandles this morning with north winds in its wake. These north
winds will become gusty at times today before diminishing late
this afternoon.

Broad southwest flow aloft is anticipated on Saturday and Saturday
night ahead of the next vigorous upper level low pressure system
progged to be moving across the western states on that day. A
deepening surface trof of low pressure is expected to develop over
eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico on Saturday in response
to the approaching upper level storm system. The resulting tight
pressure gradient will cause breezy to windy conditions across the
region Saturday and Saturday night. Short range models are in good
agreement and were accepted.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

An impressively strong and deep trough is expected to be over the
Southwestern US to start the period with a robust jet streak near
the base of the trough somewhere in the vicinity of southern New
Mexico/northern Mexico. Models depict a low pressure of around 990mb
will be set up in eastern Colorado to begin Sunday morning. Breezy
southerly winds will be ongoing at the time due to a steep surface
pressure gradient which will help bring in low-level moisture across
the Panhandles. As the jet streak rounds the base of the trough it
becomes negatively tilted, the low pressure will strengthen rapidly
through the day. Deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests the
surface low will strengthen to somewhere in the low-980mb to upper-
970mb range; a strong low pressure regardless where it ends in that
range. As this happens, the surface pressure gradient will steepen
further and winds will strengthen. 850mb winds will strengthen to,
depending on which model one favors, around 45-55 kts primarily in
the southern and eastern Texas Panhandle, and 700mb winds will
strengthen to 55-65 kts. Although some scattered clouds look
possible, not anticipating that it will be a significant inhibitor
in mixing deep enough to bring down those high winds. Therefore,
expecting widespread sustained southwesterly winds between 30-45 mph
with gusts between 50-60 mph, but won`t be surprised if there are
some gusts above 60 mph primarily in the southern and eastern Texas
Panhandle. Given the synoptically favorable pattern and good
agreement among models, have opted to issue a High Wind Watch for
the Texas Panhandle. This may eventually need to be spread into
Texas and/or Beaver County, but will hold off for now given some
uncertainty that far north. There is also concern for fire weather
given the winds and low RH, but that will be discussed below in
the Fire Weather section.

A potent cold front will move in from the north Sunday night, but
won`t be surprised if the dense airmass behind the front pushes the
front through quicker than currently anticipated. Some moisture will
move in with the front, and there is a chance for precipitation, and
possibly snow, in the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles
Monday morning. Highs Monday will feel more similar to February than
early March with temperatures only getting into the low-40s in the
northwest to mid-50s in the southeast. Temperatures warm up Tuesday
and Wednesday before another system to watch moves onto the West
Coast. As it stands now, this looks to be another windy and dry
system for the Panhandles with potentially more elevated to critical
fire weather implications.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, there may be a brief period of BR at KAMA early
in this forecast cycle. Otherwise, expect any fog and low cloud
formation to remain generally east of the terminal sites this
morning. A cold front will move across the area later this morning
and will be accompanied by gusty north winds. Winds are expected
to diminish by late this afternoon.

02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A strong low pressure system will develop in Colorado Saturday night
and strengthen further during the day Sunday. Southwesterly winds
will develop Sunday afternoon on the order of 30-45 mph with gusts
between 50-60 mph. Can`t rule out wind gusts above 60 mph especially
in the eastern and southern Texas Panhandle. A low-level thermal
ridge looks to develop in the central Texas Panhandle early Sunday
afternoon but moves eastward throughout the afternoon. Minimum
relative humidity values are currently forecast to be around 15%,
but it`s certainly possible, if not probable, that it will be more
in the range of 10-15%. Thus, there are some serious concerns about
the fire weather potential for Sunday. Therefore, a Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles for
Sunday afternoon through a portion of the evening.

A cold front is forecast to move in from the north Sunday night
which introduces a quick change from southwesterly winds to breezy
northerly to northwesterly winds. This wind change will be dangerous
if any fires are ongoing as that would cause the fires to change
directions, but after the wind direction change, relative humidity
values will increase significantly behind the front. Finally, there
is some uncertainty with the front`s timing; strong cold fronts such
as this one tend to move in quicker than models anticipate.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  35  64  50 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  64  29  65  47 /   0   0  10  10
Boise City OK              62  32  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  69  36  67  51 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              68  36  68  49 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  68  36  66  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               70  35  63  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 64  32  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  63  30  65  46 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                69  37  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                66  31  64  49 /   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   66  34  63  49 /   0   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                70  34  63  49 /   0   0   0  10
Wellington TX              72  35  63  51 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for TXZ001>020-317.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...02


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