Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 262356
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
656 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.UPDATE...High cloud coverage across most of the combined
Panhandles has helped moderate temperatures across the majority of
the region, with upper 80s to mid 90s being observed. Due to loss
of direct sunlight, and a retreating dryline, grid updates were
made for temperatures, dew point temperatures, winds and sky
coverage. In addition, the Heat Advisory covering Palo Duro Canyon
was cancelled due to observed temperatures in the lower to mid
90s. Aside from these updates, the rest of the forecast remains
on track.

Bieda

&&

.AVIATION...Previous Discussion...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will
prevail through most of the TAF period, though concerns for
thunderstorms exist AFT 27/18Z. The dryline has retreated west of
all terminals with southeast winds BTWN 10 to 20 kts with higher
gusts expected through Sunday afternoon. Due to moisture in place,
thunderstorms are possible at all 3 terminals. With this
issuance, have added PROB30 group for KGUY as highest confidence
is there for thunderstorm activity. Uncertainty exists for KAMA
and KDHT as to whether any thunderstorms will occur either in
vicinity or over terminals, so have withheld mention at this time.


Bieda


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  96  67  94  65 /   0  20  10  20  20
Beaver OK                  67  96  69  93  68 /   0  10  30  30  40
Boise City OK              63  95  62  93  59 /   0  20  10  20  10
Borger TX                  68  97  71  95  69 /   0  30  10  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              64  97  66  97  64 /   0  20  10  20  10
Canyon TX                  64  98  65  96  64 /   0  20  10  20  10
Clarendon TX               65  96  69  94  68 /   0  10  10  10  20
Dalhart TX                 61  96  63  95  60 /   0  20  10  20  10
Guymon OK                  65  97  67  94  64 /   0  30  20  30  30
Hereford TX                60  97  64  96  64 /   0  20  10  20  10
Lipscomb TX                66  95  71  93  69 /   0   5  20  20  30
Pampa TX                   66  94  67  91  65 /   0  20  10  20  20
Shamrock TX                67  96  71  94  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Wellington TX              69  99  72  96  70 /   0   0  20  10  20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 426 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast remains largely unchanged.  Very warm conditions
expected with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above
normal through Wednesday, with Thursday and Friday forecast to be
15 to 20 degrees above climo.  Dry tonight and Sunday morning,
with chances for thunderstorms resuming Sunday afternoon.

Diffluent mid-level flow sets up on Sunday with the departure of
500 mb ridge.  Broad cyclonic flow expected to continue through
at least Tuesday over Panhandles as Great Basin closed low lifts
to northern High Plains.  Mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms expected Sunday and Monday as disturbances in
southwest flow aloft may help instability to be released along
dryline.  Low-level jet expected to assist in potential inflow to
thunderstorms during the evenings.

Models disagree with low-level features Tuesday and beyond.
Resulting pops offered by Blend Tuesday and Wednesday have been
reduced and confined to eastern and northwestern sections,
respectively.  Splotchy Blended pops Thursday, Friday and Friday
night have been kept out of forecast, as rising mid-level heights
expected to lead to dry hot weather Thursday and beyond.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

98/98



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