Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 202324
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
624 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through around
10Z to 12Z Monday when low cloudiness and fog are expected to
develop. IFR or LIFR and VLIFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities
will be possible at all three TAF sites between about 10Z to 16Z
Monday with VFR conditions expected again by 16Z to 18Z Monday.
Mainly light east and southeast winds 5 to 10 knots or less
through around 16Z to 18Z Monday and then southerly winds 10 to 20
knots after 16Z to 18Z Monday at all three TAF sites.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 223 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Northerly winds will gradually swing around to the southeast
tonight. These southeast winds will bring low level moisture back
into the region. This low level moisture will help to form areas of
fog across much of the area overnight and then the fog should
dissipate by mid day on Monday.  Upslope flow across far West Texas
and southeast New Mexico is expected to help in the formation of
showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. Some
of these showers and storms may get brought up toward the far
western Panhandles overnight, so have continued with the idea of a
slight chance of rain.  Some of these showers and thunderstorms may
linger into Monday, mainly across the southwest Texas Panhandle, so
have added a slight chance there.

An upper level trough will be found over the western U.S. west of
the continental divide through about Thursday and then it will lift
out into the northern high plains by Friday and then it will slide
southeast through next weekend. Meanwhile an upper level ridge over
the southeast U.S. now will slowly make it`s way westward. This
ridge will kick the upper level trough out of the western U.S. and
then this ridge will set up over the Arizona/New Mexico state line
by next weekend.

On Monday night, an upper level disturbance is expected to help
produce mountain convection over New Mexico.  This convection is
expected to move over the Panhandles in the southwest flow aloft.

On Tuesday, lingering showers and thunderstorms may be found across
the area for much of the day. Any old outflow boundaries will
provide added lift for the showers and thunderstorms.  More
convection is expected to move this way Tuesday night from the
mountains.

On Wednesday, there could be some more shower and thunderstorm
activity as outflow boundaries could come into play once again.
However, the flow aloft is expected to weaken, so the coverage could
be less.

On Thursday, the upper level ridge moves across the Panhandles from
east to west and there may be a relative min in shower and
thunderstorm activity.

The flow aloft becomes northwesterly Friday through the end of this
forecast and will likely allow daily mountain convection to move
into our area.

High temperatures will be around or slightly cooler than average
through about Wednesday and then temperatures will likely be above
average for Thursday and Friday as the upper level ridge moves
across. Temperatures will then fall back closer to normal by the end
of the forecast as the northwest flow aloft brings a cold front in.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/11


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