Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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246
FXUS64 KAMA 191738
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will be realized at the Terminals to begin this
period. Main things today will be the breezy wind speeds and the
chance for showers/thunderstorms. Did not go too aggressive with
the thunderstorm chances due to uncertainty. However, did mention
showers possible at KAMA and KDHT today/tonight. Some storms may
become severe but again, with uncertainty in timing and coverage,
will wait to see how convection initiates and placement across the
Panhandles. Otherwise, we could see period of MVFR as well for
lower ceilings with any shower activity.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 623 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

AVIATION...12Z TAFs...A complicated set of TAFs for all
terminals, as low CIG and thunderstorm chances are possible. The
highest confidence for TSRA/VCTS was represented with either
PROB30 or prevailing conditions, with northerly winds increasing
to 15 to 30 kts as a cold front surges south BTWN 19/21Z thru
20/00Z. Post-frontal stratus is possible, with such a deck already
present at KDHT, which could bring IFR/MVFR CIGs to all terminals
AFT 20/05Z. It is possible that the stratus deck at KDHT could
clear shortly after sunrise. Given all the uncertainties
concerning frontal/dryline position and whether thunderstorms will
occur near or over terminals, TAF amendments are quite likely
during the forecast period.

Bieda

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

99/99



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