Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 222325
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
625 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A large scale upper trough prepares to move across our area this
weekend. In the short term period, broad westerly flow is expected
aloft before the strong upper low digs into our area on Sunday.

Through the rest of today into tonight, winds at the surface will
die down by the evening hours while they switch from northeast to
south. By Saturday, breezy to strong winds will return to the area
by the afternoon. However, they do not appear to be nearly as
potent at the subsequent day to come. Southerly sustained winds
will range between 30-35 mph, gusting to 45 mph at times. Sky
coverage will be mostly cloudy to overcast and minimum RH values
will range in the 30`s. This will inhibit potential fire weather
conditions, and restrict them only to Sunday. High temperatures
will continue in the 60`s and lower 70`s for the next couple of
days, lows will be in the 40`s.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A strong 538 decameter low at 500 mb will traverse across the
High Plains on Sunday. A tight gradient of pressure is displayed
uniformly amongst the models, indicating that strong surface
winds will be present throughout the day. A High Wind Watch is
already in affect for the Texas Panhandle, where wind gusts as
strong as 65 mph are possible. Even some isolated places gusting
above 70 mph cannot be ruled out. Critical wildfire conditions are
likely across the entire CWA; therefore, a Fire Weather Watch is
also in affect area wide. Minimum RH values still range between
15-20%. The upper end of those values are placed in the far
eastern Panhandles. Some low end PoPs are also positioned in the
far east Sunday morning and early afternoon. This is a result of
some fog and small shower potential due to increased moisture in
those areas, but only for that limited timeframe. Afterwards,
conditions dry out quickly as the afternoon continues.

By the overnight hours, a strong cold front will overtake the
region. Winds at the surface will still be strong from the north
in the 30-35 mph range, gusting to 50 mph at times. Lows will
plummet below freezing for most areas by Monday morning. Moisture
also looks to return behind the left exit region of the upper low.
Chances for precipitation will begin for areas in the northwest
Panhandles as early as 7PM Sunday. The primary precipitation type
will be snow behind the front, but more of a wintry mix can be
anticipated for places that receive precipitation further to the
south. Accumulations are expected to be minimal; however, Cimarron
county and surrounding areas may see slightly over an inch.

Monday onward, a notch that forms in the 500 mb jet will keep us
cool through the week. Then we return to zonal flow by the late
week. The 60`s may not return until Wednesday or Thursday. Lows
will generally remain below freezing until Friday morning. Slight
chances for precipitation are also present on Wednesday. We have
left NBM PoPs alone for that timeframe for the time being.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Confidence is very high that VFR conditions will prevail over the
next 24 hours at all sites, including AMA/DHT/GUY. Main concern
will be the likelihood for gusts to 30-35 knots out of the south-
southwest Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, winds, initially out of
the east, will turn clockwise to south-southwesterly by sunrise
Saturday.

Ferguson

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated on Sunday for
the combined Panhandles. This event will be primarily wind
driven, with wind gusts forecast to reach 60 mph across the Texas
Panhandle and potentially isolated areas could see 70 mph. Minimum
RH values will range between 15-20%, while ERC Class easily
reaches the 75th percentile across the western half of the Texas
Panhandle. Maximum RFTI values will range between 5-6. A majority
of the area is at 5 at this moment, but it could quickly switch to
6 if minimum RH values can drop a few more in percentage. A
strong cold front will impact the area overnight, but winds will
still be strong behind the front from the north. Any potential
ongoing fire will begin moving southward once the cold front
passes through. Fortunately, RH values will increase during the
night time hours. And wintry precipitation is possible for areas
in the northwest Panhandles.

A Fire Weather Watch is already in affect area wide for Sunday
afternoon into the evening.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                36  65  49  72 /   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  29  67  49  76 /   0   0  10  20
Boise City OK              33  65  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  36  67  51  76 /   0   0  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              35  70  50  72 /   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  35  66  49  71 /   0   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               36  62  50  75 /   0   0  10  10
Dalhart TX                 32  67  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  30  66  47  73 /   0   0  10  10
Hereford TX                36  67  48  70 /   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                31  65  50  76 /   0   0  10  20
Pampa TX                   34  63  49  74 /   0   0  10  10
Shamrock TX                33  63  49  76 /   0   0  10  20
Wellington TX              35  63  50  77 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for TXZ001>020-317.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...77


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