Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220854
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
354 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Departing closed upper low will allow for a northwesterly upper
flow as an upper ridge builds in from the west early this week.
Warming trend today and Monday before another cold front moves
through the Panhandles Tuesday. Windy and turning a lot cooler
Tuesday. Northern stream upper trough as depicted by the GFS or
closed upper low as forecast by the ECMWF over the northern
Rockies and Plains states Tuesday will track south and east
Tuesday night into the central Rockies and central Plains states.
Chances for convection expected as early as Tuesday afternoon
continuing into Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Upper ridge over the Western states by Wednesday night and
Thursday allows for drier northwesterly flow aloft. Northern
stream upper trough forecast to track south and east by Thursday
night with a cold front moving through the forecast area Thursday
afternoon and evening. Chances for convection return by Thursday
evening and Thursday night. Cooler and drier Friday as surface
ridge builds into the Panhandles late this week.

Big differences in the medium range models late this week into
the weekend with the GFS forecasting "dirty" upper ridge building
in over West Texas from the Rockies late Friday into the weekend
with ample moisture trapped under the upper ridge. Chances for
convection continue across the forecast area Friday night through
the upcoming weekend and into early next week. The ECMWF, on the
other hand, forecasting the upper ridge over the southwestern
states and Intermountain West late this week building in over the
Panhandles by late this upcoming weekend and early next week.
However, the ECMWF maintains a dry forecast late this week through
early next week. Confidence low but will maintain chances for
convection late this week into the weekend for now.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  42  75  48  64 /   0   0   0   5  20
Beaver OK                  64  40  73  48  61 /   0   0   0  10  40
Boise City OK              62  39  74  43  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
Borger TX                  66  43  77  50  62 /   0   0   0   5  20
Boys Ranch TX              65  42  79  49  62 /   0   0   0   5  20
Canyon TX                  67  42  77  48  66 /   0   0   0   5  10
Clarendon TX               64  43  74  49  69 /   0   0   0   5  20
Dalhart TX                 64  41  76  46  57 /   0   0   0   5  20
Guymon OK                  64  39  74  46  57 /   0   0   0  10  30
Hereford TX                67  42  78  48  67 /   0   0   0   5  10
Lipscomb TX                63  41  72  49  65 /   0   0   0  10  30
Pampa TX                   61  41  73  48  63 /   0   0   0  10  20
Shamrock TX                67  43  74  50  68 /   0   0   0  10  20
Wellington TX              68  44  75  51  72 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

24/11



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