520
FXUS63 KAPX 201009
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
609 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Seasonably cool temperatures and quiet weather return today through
the rest of the work week.


-Frost/freeze concerns continue tonight and Thursday night.


-Temperatures slowly build through the rest of the week into
 early next week with periodic chances of precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Pattern Synopsis:


A 500mb troughing pattern begins to break down and progress
northeast this morning as a somewhat zonal flow positions itself
over Northern Michigan. Post-frontal northwest flow at the surface
will draw a cool cP air influence into the Great Lakes Region,
resulting in seasonably cool temperatures and overall quiet weather
through the remainder of the work week. Conditions turn more active
this weekend as low-amplitude shortwave troughing develops over the
Canadian Rockies until it reaches the central U.S. and then lifts
through the Great Lakes Region. Disheveled surface low pressure will
provide enough energy to return some scattered showers around the
Saturday/Sunday timeframe. The remainder of the forecast period will
remain relatively quiet as upstream ridging returns subsidence aloft
and surface high pressure settles over the central U.S. with
temperatures building above normal for late May.


Forecast Details:


Today through Friday...Post frontal northwest flow will build cold
and quiet weather across the Northwoods. Surface highs will be below
normal for this time period as the coldest day (today) will only
reach highs in the mid 50s to low 60s for most areas. The only
concern at this time period is the chilly overnight temperatures
falling into the mid to low 30s. Temperatures will be near freezing
as cloud cover clears late, which impacts the true efficiency
of overnight radiational cooling processes. Areas along the
interior northern lower and eastern upper will likely observe a
short period of temperatures at or below freezing while areas
closer to lakes remain slightly warmer.

Saturday and Sunday...The previously mentioned shortwave will return
light shower chances this weekend as guidance depicts low pressure
tracking through the Mississippi Valley across Michigan. With
weakening upper level dynamics combined with the strongest forcing
to our south, highest probabilities remain below a quarter inch for
the entire event. Nevertheless, light stratiform rain this Saturday
and lingering moisture behind the system provide less than ideal
weather for the holiday weekend.

Monday and Tuesday Outlook...Upstream ridging pattern originating
from the southwest and progressing across the county will support a
gradual rise in temperatures across the Great Lakes region.
Southerly air influence combined with diurnal heating processes will
return high temperatures to the 70s and 80s across the CWA.
Subsidence aloft will return high pressure, keeping precipitation
chances minimal next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the
issuance period. Northwest to north-northwest winds around 10 kts
are expected into the early evening hours with gusts around 20 kts
at times. Winds are expected to go calm later this evening for most
areas.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MJG