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418
FXUS63 KAPX 060203
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1003 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze potential tonight, especially across inland areas.

- Shower/storm chances return Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Cool temperatures, rain chances through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Temperatures continue to spiral downward with excellent
conditions for such...mainly clear skies (just some thin high
clouds across southern areas), light winds, and a dry airmass.
Expect this trend to continue. Still think inherited lows well
down into the lower and middle 30s across interior areas will be
realized by sunrise Tuesday, with even a few upper 20s possible
in our typical ice-box locations. Inherited frost advisory will
remain.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Mid/upper-level troughing will continue to slide across southeast
Canada tonight and Monday as upstream ridging amplifies with time,
eventually working over the Great Lakes by the end of the period.
Subsidence aloft generated at the ridge/trough inflection point will
build surface high pressure directly overhead tonight, and largely
remain in place through Monday.

Forecast Details:

Frost/freeze tonight -- Rain-free weather with sunny/clear skies is
in store for the area through Monday with aforementioned high
pressure in place. The main concern will be frost/freeze conditions
across a large swath of northern Michigan late tonight into Monday
morning. Calm winds and clear skies will support efficient
radiational cooling tonight, allowing daytime temperatures in the
60s and low 70s to plummet into the low to mid 30s by early Monday
morning. As is typical with these set ups, localized low-lying areas
speckled across the interior higher terrain -- including obs sites
near Atlanta, Roscommon, Grayling, Indian River, and Pellston -- may
even see temperatures dip into the 20s as the coldest air from
surrounding higher terrain pools in these locations. Protective
measures should be taken for sensitive vegetation so they are not
damaged, such as bringing plants indoors and the use of frost fans
given the strong inversion that will be in place.

Otherwise, temperatures on Monday look to warm into the upper 60s to
mid 70s across most of the area -- with slightly cooler temperatures
along the immediate lakeshores.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Highly amplified ridging over the Great Lakes will be pushed
eastward and separated as a strong jet associated with an impressive
mid/upper-level low centered over the northern Great Plains punches
over the region. A weak surface cyclone supported by said troughing
will also work across the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Troughing looks to remain in place through the end of the week.

Forecast Details:

Shower/thunderstorm chances return Tuesday into Wednesday -- Quiet
weather is expected to remain in place into Tuesday afternoon before
showers and thunderstorm chances return late Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday morning. There`s still uncertainty as to how far north
favorable warm/moist air gets late Tuesday into Wednesday, which
will impact thunderstorm potential. Current confidence is that
thunderstorm chances are low, but non-zero, and that best chances
for severe storms will confined well south of the CWA near the
MI/IN/OH border. A few showers may linger across the eastern U.P.
and northeast lower, but the majority of shower activity is expected
to move out of the area by Wednesday morning.

Cool temperatures, rain chances through the end of the week -- As
aforementioned troughing pivots overhead, cooler temperatures will
return to the region. Highs in the 50s are expected for most areas
through the second half of the week into the weekend. Best chances
for rain will come on Thursday, but additional chances for rain are
also possible at times through the first half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions under mostly clear/sunny skies through this taf
period. Winds become light tonight, with local lake breeze
development expected by Monday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for MIZ016>018-021>024-
     027>030-032>035.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MSB