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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KAPX 131712
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
112 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing chances of showers tonight, could be a few rumbles
  of thunder.

- Unseasonably warm Sunday into the first half of next week.

- Showers likely as we head toward mid-week.

- Colder temperatures late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Quite the difference from this time yesterday, with plenty of
sunshine found across the region. Likely to see some increasing high
and mid level clouds later today, with even a small potential for a
few light showers by later this afternoon across eastern upper
Michigan. Winds will remain a touch gusty today out of the northwest
and west, making it feel just a bit cooler than the expected highs
mostly in the 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Increasing chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Slight chance of a few non-severe
thunderstorms tonight.

Deep low pressure continues to push NE away from the Great Lakes
early this morning. Upstream narrow ridge axis extending from
Central Canada to the Gulf of Mexico is edging eastward into the
Western Great Lakes. Skies have become mainly clear across our
CWA...with just a few patches of low clouds drifting thru our area.
NW winds remain gusty across our entire CWA...but have fallen below
Wind Advisory criteria. Temps continue to slowly cool out of the 40s
and into the 30s.

Narrow ridge axis will slide over Michigan today...quickly followed
by an area of deepening moisture around and ahead of a fast-moving
low pressure system developing over the Northern Plains. After a dry
and mainly sunny but breezy day today...clouds will rapidly increase
later this afternoon and tonight with chances of showers increasing
as the low center tracks thru Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. Northern
edge of the instability axis ahead of this system will clip our
southern CWA later tonight...resulting in a slight chance of a few
non-severe thunderstorms along and south of a line from Grand
Traverse Bay to Saginaw Bay.

High temps this afternoon will warm mainly into the 50s...with
overnight lows cooling back into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave ridge builds in from the west yielding mainly
precipitation free conditions (with the possible exception of a
shower close to Lake Huron early Sunday) along with warmer
temperatures through the period. Lingering cloudiness Sunday morning
(especially across eastern zones), otherwise mostly clear skies are
anticipated through the short term portion of the forecast.

Highs for both Sunday and Monday ranging from the mid 50s across
eastern upper to around 70 near Saginaw Bay. Lows in the 30s to near
40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Extended guidance is in good agreement that a cutoff upper level low
currently across the eastern Pacific just off the northern
California coast heads east northeast toward the Great Lakes over
the next few days. This system is expected to eventually bring
showers to the region as we approach mid-week. This system is
also shown to merge with a northern stream trough which will likely
send a shot of colder air into the region at the end of the week.
There could even be a few snow showers around as we get to the end
of the week into the beginning of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
Expect increasing clouds across the taf locations later this
afternoon and tonight, with those clouds bringing showers to
much of the area tonight. May hear a rumble of thunder or two,
but uncertainty of overall coverage remains too high for a
specific mention in this taf period. Current trends support cigs
and visibilities remaining VFR across northern lower taf
locations, with MVFR cigs building across KCIU later tonight
into Sunday morning (perhaps even a period of IFR cigs). Gusty
winds will subside tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria along all
Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan nearshore waters today.
Conditions will then remain below SCA criteria for the remainder of
the weekend. Chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
will increase tonight along and ahead of a fast-moving low pressure
system. Dry wx is expected for the first part of next week.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-
     322.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MLR