405
FXUS63 KAPX 291014
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
614 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/isolated thunder today into tonight.

- Light rain showers late Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially
  north.

- Rain showers, perhaps some rumbles of thunder, late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to pivot east of the region today as a
shortwave trough and associated jet max punch over the Great Lakes.
Surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest will also trek northeast
across the far northern Great Lakes and into southern Ontario while
weakening as favorable forcing becomes increasingly displaced today
into tonight.

Forecast Details:

Rain/isolated thunder today into tonight --  Light isolated to
scattered showers will continue across parts of northern Michigan
early this morning. Ongoing rain and embedded thunder across
Illinois/NW Indiana will spread northeast, working into
southwest portions of the CWA around mid morning. This activity
will slide across the area through the rest of the morning and
into the afternoon with rainfall amounts expected to be around
0.5" for most. Localized areas could see closer to 0.75" through
this afternoon. While not necessarily expected, isolated
rumbles of thunder will be possible with this activity through
the afternoon. Chances for rain showers will diminish through
this evening and tonight. Otherwise, temperatures look to reach
into the 60s for areas along and south of M-32 where a warm
front looks to slide up to later today with cooler highs in the
40s and low 50s north of the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper and sfc low will drift off to the northeast into Ontario on
Tuesday resulting in drier conditions. Short wave clips northern
Michigan very late Tuesday into Wednesday with weak sfc boundary. A
few generally light showers expected as a result. Next feature of
note will begin to impact the Northwoods late week in the form of
another Upper Midwest bound upper low/sfc low and its frontal
features. Slightly cooler airmass will settle in this weekend in
wake of this low pressure system.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Dry conditions take hold on Tuesday as sfc low departs the region
with temperatures in the 50s and 60s most areas. Energy lifts to the
northwest of Michigan very late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a
weak sfc boundary moving through. Consequently, a few light rain
showers possible, especially the farther north and west you are in N
MI but nothing of consequence. Clears out by the afternoon hours on
Wednesday with progged forecast soundings showing modest afternoon
boundary layer mixing resulting in breezy and drying conditions.
Blended in some drier guidance to achieve lower relative humidity in
the forcast as a result.

Next feature of note will be another trough and low pressure system
moving into the N Plains/Upper Midwest to the west of northern
Michigan. Warm and moist advection begins to move into the region on
Thursday, with the first batch of precipitation arriving. First
batch of precip may favor western and northern areas moreso given
the latest guidance. Another shot for precip will come with the cold
front on Friday. Some guidance does suggest weak CAPE values, but
ensemble probs for >500j/kg of CAPE Thurs-Fri are generally non-
existent (<10%). Thus, have a few rumbles of thunder in the forecast
during this time but not much more than that. Temperatures will cool
a little this upcoming weekend behind this system with a slight
chance for a few rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
IFR CIGs currently in place across all northern Michigan TAF sites
with firm LIFR CIGs across interior northern lower. LIFR CIGs may
spread to TAF sites in the next few hours -- most likely at APN,
PLN, and CIU with lesser chances at TVC and MBL. IFR/LIFR CIGs are
expected across APN, PLN, and CIU through the majority of the
issuance period, where TVC and MBL to MVFR or even VFR later
this afternoon and evening. Widespread rain will also move in
from the southwest around mid morning and last through mid to
late afternoon before becoming more scattered/isolated with time
tonight. East-southeast winds this morning will turn to south-
southwest winds across much of northern lower Michigan as a warm
front lifts across the area.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...DJC