Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 210515

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.


Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 05N15W, and 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from
02N19W, crossing the Equator along 26W, to 01S34W, and 01S40W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within
100 nm to the east of the line that runs from the Equator along
04W, to 02N07W, and 04N08W. scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are within 30 nm on either side of the line 03N26W
02N31W 02N34W 02N41W, and from 05N to 06N between 49W and 54W.
isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.



A stationary front passes through 29N78W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to 28N82W in Florida, to 26N90W in the central Gulf of Mexico, to
the coast of NE Mexico near 26N97W. rainshowers are possible from
25N northward. The upper level wind flow is broad westerly.

The front will weaken through this morning, with its remnants
lifting northward as a warm front this afternoon, ahead of a cold
front that is expected to reach the Texas coast early on Sunday.
This front will be preceded by a line of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The cold front will reach from the Mississippi
Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Sunday night, from the Florida
Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night, and then move
slowly southeastward on Tuesday, and eventually being southeast
of area by Wednesday evening.


Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, spans the entire
area. The trough cuts across central Cuba, toward the Gulf of
Uraba of Colombia. Lingering rainshowers cover the area that
extends from Nicaragua near 13N northward to the Bahamas near 24N
between 68W/eastern sections of Hispaniola and 88W in parts of
Central America.

Surface-to-low level cyclonic wind flow is in the SW corner of the
area. rainshowers are possible from 15N southward from 76W

Other rainshowers are possible from 77W eastward. 24-hour rainfall
totals that are listed for the period that ended at 21/0000
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe.

Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea through early
Sunday. Strong nocturnal trade winds then are expected to resume
on Sunday night along the northern coast of the South America.
Northeast swell, currently across the tropical waters that are to
the east of the Leeward Islands, will subside gradually through
Saturday evening. A weakening cold front will pass across the
Yucatan Basin on Tuesday night, and wash out across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle of next week.


A cold front passes just to the east of Bermuda, to 30N71W, to
29N78W. The front is stationary from 29N78W beyond 28N83W on the
Florida west coast. The stationary front eventually continues into
the central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is from 150 nm to 210
nm to the SE of the cold front. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of
the line that passes through 32N59W to 28N66W to 26N70W.
rainshowers are possible from 26N to 27N between 74W and 77W.

The current cold front extends from just east of Bermuda,
southwestward to 29N77W, where it becomes stationary to Cape
Canaveral Florida. The cold front part of the front will become
stationary E to W along 26N on Saturday night. Remnants of this
front will lift northward on Sunday. Near gale force southeast
wind flow will develop north of the Bahamas on Monday, to the
east of a surface low that will shift eastward across the
southeastern United States. The surface low will move
northeastward along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Tuesday, and drag a cold front across the northwest waters during
the middle part of next week.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N15W, about
300 nm to the north of the Canary Islands. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 22N northward from 30W
eastward. A 1006 mb low pressure is near 35N14W. A frontal
boundary is inland in northern sections of Africa.

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