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000
AXNT20 KNHC 170611
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall:
A broad surface trough is coupling with a pronounced upper- level
trough from Mid Latitudes in the vicinity to produce scattered
heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic
and nearby waters. The local weather agency reported 5 to 9
inches of rain across the republic for the past 24 to 48 hours.
The trend is expected to continue through at least Thursday. Heavy
rainfall will greatly increase the chance of flash flooding and
mudslide, especially in hilly terrains. Local residents need to
stay up to date with the latest information from their local
weather and emergency management agencies.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near
Conakry, then reaches southwestward to 06N19W. An ITCZ continues
from 06N19W to 01S30W, then turns westward to north of Sao Luis,
Brazil at 01S45W. Numerous moderate with isolated to scattered
strong convection is noted near both features from 01N to 07N
between 10W and 28W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from northern Florida to
near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh with locally strong E to SE winds and
seas at 5 to 7 ft are present at the south-central Gulf,
including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh E to ESE
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the west-central and
southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. Gentle
SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are seen at the northeastern Gulf,
offshore the Florida Big Bend area. Moderate to fresh ESE to SSE
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf,
including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, tight gradient between the surface ridge and
lower pressures over Mexico will result in fresh to strong
easterly winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan peninsula and
southwestern Gulf during the next several nights. Otherwise,
moderate winds and seas will continue through most of the week. A
cold front may move into the northwestern Gulf Sun and Sun night,
followed by fresh NE winds and moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about heavy rainfall over
and near the Dominican Republic.

A Bermuda High near 30N73W continues to support a trade-wind
pattern across much of the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong NNE to
ENE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the south-central
basin, near the Cayman Islands and Windward Passage. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen near the ABC
Islands and at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will keep fresh to locally
strong trade winds pulsing nightly in the south-central basin
through Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will also
pulse in the Windward Passage, south of the Dominican Republic and
in the lee of Cuba through early Thu, then in the Windward
Passage at night through Sun. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh
winds and moderate seas can be expected across much of the basin
through the middle of the week, then become confined to mostly the
central and eastern basin Sat through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Aided by strong divergent winds aloft, a board surface trough
near 25N63W is generating scattered moderate convection from 21N
to 29N between 54W and 63W. Another surface trough embedded within
the trade-wind flow is causing scattered showers east of the
Leeward Islands from 15N to 21N between 56W and 60W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in
moderate easterly swell are present north of 20N between 45W and
the Florida-Georgia coast. For the eastern Atlantic, mainly light
to gentle with locally moderate N to NE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas
are seen north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 45W,
including the Canary Islands. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle
to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted from
08N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the
tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas
exist. Light to gentle easterly and monsoonal winds with seas of 4
to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High is forcing moderate
to fresh E-NE winds west of 70W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present between 60W and 65W in association with
a surface trough. This wet pattern will continue affecting the
southeastern Bahamas, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Thu as a
possible weak low pressure forms in the vicinity and tracks
northeastward. Decaying northerly swell impacting waters from
Puerto Rico southward to the Leeward islands will linger through
early Wed afternoon. High pressure will build over the waters
north of about 20N later this week, allowing for generally
tranquil marine conditions. A cold front may move over the waters
off northeastern Florida late Sun night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms could precede this front.

$$

Chan