Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 231209

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
808 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to
03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, 01N23W, to the Equator
along 30W, to Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 00N-04N between 22W-40W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-04N between 46W-51W.



As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N85W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W to Tampico
Mexico near 22N98W. Scattered moderate convection is over the SE
Gulf from 24N-26N between 83W-87W. Scattered showers are over most
of the Florida Peninsula. More scattered showers are within 120 nm
S of Tampico Mexico. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche
from 22N90W to 18N93W depicted by a wind shift.

The cold front will reach from Apalachee Bay to 25N88W to eastern
Bay of Campeche Mon evening, and from near Tampa Bay to 24N89W
and stationary to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Tue. The cold
front will slow down as it moves across the far SE Gulf and
Straits of Florida early Wed morning, then reach NW Cuba by late
Wed night into early Thu, while the stationary portion remains
from the eastern Bay of Campeche to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Weak
high pres will build across the area behind the front, however,
another weak cold front is expected to move to just offshore the
Texas coast early on Thu. This next cold front is expected to
reach the eastern gulf by Fri night, followed by gentle to
moderate NW to N flow.


10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered showers are presently
over Costa Rica and Panama. Expect afternoon and evening
thunderstorms to build over Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, N Colombia,
and W Venezuela during maximum diurnal heating. In the upper
levels, an upper level trough is over the central Caribbean with
upper level diffluence over the E Caribbean. Broken high clouds
are over most of the SE Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh-to-strong trade
winds near the coast of Colombia through Tuesday. A weakening
cold front will move southeastward across the Yucatan Basin on
Tuesday night, and wash out across the NW Caribbean Sea by


A stationary front passes through 32N51W to 26N70W dissipating to
28N80W. Isolated moderate convection is over the N Bahamas and W
Atlantic N of 24N and W of 75W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the remainder of the front. A large 1030 mb high is centered
over the E Atlantic near 36N31W.

The current stationary front will lift northward through early
Monday. Near gale-force southeast wind flow will be developing
across the forecast waters north of the Bahamas on Monday and
Monday night, in association with a surface low pressure center
that will move eastward across the southeastern United States.
The surface low pressure center will track northeastward along
the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Tuesday. The low center
will drag a couple of weak cold fronts across the northwestern
waters during the middle of next week.

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