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000
AXNT20 KNHC 100000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The next cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf
early Wed morning. Expect strong to near gale winds in he
vicinity of the front as it moves across the basin. Frequent
gusts to gale-force are expected to start from the Wed afternoon
until Thursday morning, from 28N to 30N between 83W and 91W. The
front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the NW coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of the area
Fri morning. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES...

The current METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast consists of gale-
force winds in the marine zone AGADIR until 10/0600 UTC. Gale-
force winds are in the marine zone TARFAYA until 10/0000 UTC.
Rough seas are from 26N northward from 20W eastward. The 24-hour
outlook consists of the persistence or the threat of N to NE
near gale- force or gale-force winds in the marine zone of
CANARIAS.

For more details refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

Gale force SE winds are expected ahead of a cold front across
the W Atlantic waters N of 30N W of 78W on Thu afternoon. As the
front continues moving E, gale-force winds will prevail in the
vicinity of the front and N of 30N through Fri morning. Rough to
very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Please,
read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 10N14W to 00N20W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N43W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ between 20W-46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the northern Gulf waters.

A ridge extends from high pressure in the western Atlantic
across the Gulf coast states. The pressure gradient between the
area of high pressure and 1002 mb low pressure over SW Texas is
supporting fresh to strong winds across the Gulf waters W of
90W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted E of 90W. Seas are in the
8-11 ft range W of 90W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere, except over the E
Gulf E of 83W where 2-4 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, the Atlantic surface high will shift further E
through mid week. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will dominate
ahead of an approaching cold front. The next cold front is
expected to move into the western Gulf by early Wed morning. The
front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the NW coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of the area
Fri morning. Winds may be near gale force offshore Veracruz,
Mexico Wed afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front with improving conditions through the upcoming
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is centered over the western Atlantic near 32N72W.
The tail end of a cold front extends across the NE Caribbean
from 17N62W to 19N78W with scattered showers. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and the Colombian Low
is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage. The pressure gradient also
supports fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean
waters. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the south central
Caribbean, 6-8 ft over the remainder of the central Caribbean
waters, and 4-6 ft across the western portion of the basin.
Elsewhere, seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the western
Atlantic through Wed, tightening the pressure gradient across
the region. This will result in fresh to strong winds expanding
in areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean, pulsing
to near gale-force at night off of Colombia through the next
several nights/mornings. The building high pressure will also
support fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of
Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will start to
diminish the end of the week as the high pressure shifts
eastward and well NE of the region. Looking ahead, a cold front
is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then stall
and weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri into Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings in
effect for the far E Atlantic and far W portion.

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N38W to 17N62W.
Fresh to strong winds are noted E of the front, N of 29N between
35W and 40W. Rough to very rough seas prevail near the front
between 34W-71W. The larger seas are NW of the front. Outside of
the gales off Africa, fresh to strong winds are noted from 15N
to 31N and E of 30W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
generally prevail. Outside of the large seas in the vicinity of
the gales off Africa and near the front described above, seas of
5-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, large NW swell will prevail across
the NE waters through tonight before shifting E of the area.
High pressure in the far western Atlantic will move E through
Fri.  The associated ridge will support moderate to fresh winds
across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches
through tonight, becoming fresh to strong Wed through Thu. Fresh
southerly winds will develop offshore of Florida and N of the
Bahamas on Wed evening and increase to strong to near gale-force
Wed night through Thu, ahead of an approaching cold front. The
front is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula Thu night, with
gales possible Thu and Thu night N of 30N and E of the front.
The front will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning,
and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning. The
front will then stall and dissipate through the remainder of the
weekend.

$$
ERA