Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241806

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.


A broad, stationary 1009 mb surface low pressure system is centered
over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W, gradually
becoming better defined. Scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms along with strong gusty winds are confined
primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea N of 18N W of 82W, including the Yucatan Channel and the
Straits of Florida. Isolated showers and tstms associated with
this system are already in the SE Gulf of Mexico S of 25N and also
extend to the Gulf of Honduras. Gradual development of this
system is expected during the next couple of days as it drifts
northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development through
early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is
likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is forecast
across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf
Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents
will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward
to Louisiana over Memorial Day weekend. The chance for tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is medium. The chance
for tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days is high.


A tropical wave is within 780 nm SE of the Lesser Antilles with
axis extending from 12N48W to 02S49W, moving west at 15 to 20
knots. The wave is in a moderate moist environment that is
supporting isolated showers within 150 nm either side of the wave


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal, Africa near
07N13W and continues to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to
00N35W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong showers are
in the vicinity of the monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 03W-
19W. Scattered moderate showers are within 175 nm either side of
the ITCZ.



Surface ridging extends from the eastern CONUS and the SW N Atlc
into the northern and portions of the SE Gulf with a weakness in
that ridge analyzed as a surface trough from Pensacola, Florida to
the coast of SE Louisiana to SE Texas offshore waters near 28N94W.
Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of the trough in the
NW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the western half of the
basin with seas in the range of 2 to 3 ft. On the eastern Gulf,
however, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and a
broad area of low pressure centered in the SE Yucatan Peninsula is
supporting E to SE moderate to locally fresh winds being the
strongest winds in the SE basin. The area of low pressure is
generating showers and tstms in the region of strongest winds.
Gradual development of this system is expected during the next
couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong
winds and building seas are expected east of this system. See
special features section for further details.


Please read the Special Features section above for hazards
associated with a tropical low centered in the SE Yucatan
Peninsula. Very moist conditions across the western half of the
Caribbean along with the east Pacific monsoon trough extending
across Panama to northern Colombia support scattered heavy showers
and tstms within 75 nm of the coast of Nicaragua and 90 nm of the
coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, surface ridging
extending from the central Atlc into the northern and eastern
Caribbean continue to support moderate to fresh winds in the
central and eastern basin and fresh to strong NE to E winds
within 240 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh SE winds and
building seas are expected the NW Caribbean N of 21N W of 86W this
weekend associated with the developing low in the Yucatan


Scattered to isolated showers are over the Florida Straits and the
northern and central Bahamas associated with a developing tropical
low in the SE Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the Atlc is
under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered SW of the
Azores Islands by a 1029 mb high. This high is supporting moderate
winds in the Bahamas Bank and Atlc passages to the Caribbean.

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