Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 200430

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The monsoon trough along the coast of Africa near 10N14W extends
southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues westward from 02N20W
to 01N40W to the coast of South America near 00N50W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 01S-02N between 32W-40W.



A cold front extends from N Florida near 30N83W to NE Mexico near
24N98W. The front is void of precipitation. A surface trough is
over the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to 18N94W. This trough is
also void of precipitation. Scattered moderate convection is
inland over the Yucatan Peninsula and SE Mexico, however.

Expect the front to become stationary from south Forida to NE
Mexico Friday morning. Visibility will remain unrestricted across
the Gulf, and no showers or thunderstorms are expected into
Friday morning. The front will drift north over the western Gulf
as a warm front by Friday afternoon. Fresh to strong easterly
winds are expected over the northeastern Gulf into Sat as high
pressure builds north of the area behind the front. The front will
weaken across Florida and the eastern Gulf on Sat, possibly
returning northward as a warm front on Sunday, ahead of another
cold front that will emerge off the Texas coast late Sat
night/early Sun morning. This second weak front will extend from
the mouth of the Mississippi River southwestward to near Veracruz
Mexico by late Sun, and from the Florida Panhandle to the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula by late Monday, followed by
moderate northerly winds.


An upper trough over the Caribbean is aiding the development of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across E Cuba and
Hispaniola. Similar showers and thunderstorms ar over N Colombia
and NW Venezuela. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE to E surface
winds persist off the coasts of NW Venezuela and N Colombia with
8 to 10 ft seas. Otherwise, moderate winds and seas, accompanied
by dry conditions persist across the basin.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will
maintain fresh to locally strong tradewind flow along the north
coast of South America tonight. These winds will expand northward
over the south central Caribbean into the southwest Caribbean
through Fri, then diminish somewhat late this weekend into early
next week. Northeasterly swell will increase east of the Leewards
tonight and Friday, then decay from west to east through Sun.


A cold front will move off the northeastern Florida coast
tonight and reach from near Bermuda to south Florida by late Fri,
then stall from 26N65W to the Straits of Florida by late Sat.
Remnants of the front will lift northward on Sun ahead of another
cold front that will move eastward across the southeastern United
States and enter the northwest waters by late Tue.

Farther east, a large 1035 mb high over the central Atlantic near
35N37W is producing moderate to fresh trade winds over the deep
tropics. Large long period northerly swell persists, with 12 to 14
ft seas covering the region north of 20N east of 50W, and 8 to 12
ft seas present north of 12N and east of 55W.

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