000
AXNT20 KNHC 130003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong subtropical ridge over the NW
Atlantic will force fresh to near gale-force easterly winds across
the south-central Caribbean for the next several days. Gale force
winds are expected to pulse offshore Colombia tonight through Sun
night. Seas should peak near 12 ft during each night`s late
night/early morning hours.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
on the above GALE WARNING.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the W coast of
Africa near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 02N30W to 02N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 02S to 04N E of 20W and from 03S to
06N W of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge centered by a strong high pressure over
Louisiana covers the basin. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and a stationary front over the NW Caribbean is supporting
moderate to fresh NW to NE winds over great portions of the E Gulf
and gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the SW Gulf. Off the W
Yucatan Peninsula, winds are fresh to strong from the NE. Seas are
moderate to 5 ft in the SE Gulf and in the eastern Bay of
Campeche, and slight across the remainder basin.

For the forecast, strong winds will pulse off the northwest
Yucatan in the evenings through the next several days. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh winds with slight to moderate seas can be
expected through the next several days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale
Warning off NW Colombia.

A stationary front extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras with isolated showers. Moderate to fresh NW winds follow
the front. The remainder basin is under the influence of the
Atlantic subtropical ridge that extends along the northern
Caribbean. The gradient between the high pressure and lower
pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to near gale-force
winds in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean as
well as the Leeward Islands adjacent waters. Fresh to strong NE
winds are also ongoing in the Windward Passage. Seas are slight in
the NW basin ahead of the front, moderate over the E and portions
of the central basin, and rough in the 8-11 ft range over
Colombia and Venezuela adjacent waters

For the forecast, gale-force winds will pulse off the northern
coast of Colombia at night through the weekend. A stationary front
from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will gradually
dissipate through Sat. Some rough seas are possible near the
Yucatan Channel through Sat. High pressure will build in as the
front washes out with moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate
seas across much of the basin, locally strong near the Windward
Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba.
Similar winds may develop near the Gulf of Honduras by mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N74W SW to Andros Island to W Cuba
where it stalls into the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are
ahead and behind the front over the offshore waters N of 30N while
rough seas peak at 10 ft. The remainder of the subtropical
Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge. The pressure
gradient between the front and the ridge supports a broad area of
fresh to strong NE winds N of 17N between 35W and 65W along with
rough seas in the 8-10 ft range in mixed N and NE long period
swell. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds extends to the tropical
waters E of the Lesser Antilles and to 40W with 8-9 ft seas.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from
31N68W to the SE Bahamas early Sat while weakening, then from
31N61W to eastern Cuba early Sun where it will stall and gradually
dissipate. Strong winds N of 29N and near the front will diminish
by Sat night. Rough seas will accompany these winds. Large N-NE
swell across the SE waters will linger through the weekend.
Otherwise, high pressure will build in the wake of the front
through early next week with more tranquil marine conditions
expected.

$$
Ramos