Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 150456

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the African coast
near 07N13W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 01N30W
to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 05N between
16W and 30W.



High pressure centered just S of Louisiana near 28N90W is
generally maintaining moderate N to NE winds over the Gulf waters.
Winds are moderate to fresh over the SE Gulf and Bay of Campeche,
where a tighter pressure gradient is supporting stronger winds.
The high will migrate southeast over the northeast Gulf and then
over the western Atlantic during the next 48 hours, eventually
reaching the Bahamas by Sat evening. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds will generally veer to SE on Thu then to S on Fri as the
high shifts ESE. Return flow on the west side of the high will
become moderate to fresh on Friday. The strongest return flow will
be concentrated W of 90W.


A weakening stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near
21N77W to the coast of NE Honduras near 16N84W. The front is
weakening and will dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh trades are
observed north of the front. Fresh to strong trades are observed
W of the front as well as over the waters south of 18N and east of
75W, where lower pressure over South America is augmenting the
pressure gradient. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades and
relatively dry conditions prevail and will continue during the
next several days as mid to upper-level ridging extending over the
basin from the east maintains a benign weather pattern.


A stationary front crosses the west-central Atlantic from 32N57W
to 26N68W to the coast of NE Cuba near 21N76W. Winds along the
front have weakened in response to the approach of a cold front
from the NW. The cold front curves SW from 32N70W to 28N76W, then
continues as a weakening cold front to 27N78W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed along and up to 180 nm NW of the stationary
front N of 22N. Strong convection is occurring N of 22N along the
S side of the stationary front. There is no significant
convection currently associated with the cold front. The cold
front pushing SE from the Carolinas and Georgia will cause the
stationary front to begin moving east again tonight before the two
boundaries merge. The combined front will then dissipate into a
trough by the end of the week. High pressure will shift E from the
NE Gulf of Mexico behind the front on Thu and Fri, then continue
east into the west Atlantic along 27N this weekend. A broad area
of high pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic,
anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 27N43W. The high is
maintaining moderate to fresh northeast winds over the tropical
Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 30W and the Windward Islands.

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