Tropical Weather Discussion
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527
AXNT20 KNHC 170000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N30W to 00N37W.
No significant convection is noted at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure and generally fair weather prevails across the
basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered along the coast of
Louisiana near 30N93W. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NW part of the
area, and 5-8 ft SE of a line from western Florida to Veracruz
Mexico.

The high will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through
Wed. Southerly return flow will increase in the western Gulf Tue
and Wed as the ridge shifts east. A weak cold front will reach
the northern Gulf Thu, then stall and dissipate Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba
to northern Honduras. Some showers are noted near the front, but
steadily diminishing in intensity and areal extent this evening.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds continue across most of the
basin. Fresh to strong east winds will pulse each night off the
coast of northern Colombia with seas to 9 ft. Altimeter data
shows 5-8 ft seas occurring over the remainder of the basin.

The front will slowly weaken then dissipate through Tue night,
with a few showers, and fresh northerly winds NW of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N73W across
the Bahamas to central Cuba. Widely scattered showers are noted
within 120 to 180 nm east of the front. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds prevail west of the front, with seas generally 7
to 10 ft. A broad area of high pressure extends across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near
31N55W. The ridge is supporting light winds north of 25N, and
moderate to fresh trades south of 25N. NE swell of 7-10 ft is
located south of 20N and E of 55W.

The front will slowly weaken then dissipate through Wed. Winds
behind the front will diminish Tuesday and Wednesday as high
pressure becomes centered over the western Atlantic. The ridge
will shift east tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front that
will move into the central Atlantic on Tuesday. The second front
will slide east of 35W Wednesday, followed by a large area of NW
swell with wave heights of 8-15 ft covering a large portion of
the area north of 20N and east of 45W Wednesday and Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell



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