Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 200003

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


The monsoon trough along the coast of Africa near 10N14W extends
southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues westward from 02N20W
to 03N40W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Scattered
moderate showers are from 02S-02N between 30W-50W.



A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to S
Texas near 27N97W. The front is void of precipitation. A surface
trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 18N94W. This
trough is also void of precipitation. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula, however.

Expect the front to become stationary from south Forida to south
Texas by Friday morning. Visibility will remain unrestricted
across the Gulf, and no showers or thunderstorms are expected
into Friday morning. The front will drift north over the western
Gulf as a warm front by Friday afternoon. Fresh to strong easterly
winds are expected over the northeastern Gulf into Sat as high
pressure builds north of the area behind the front. The front will
weaken across Florida and the eastern Gulf on Sat, possibly
returning northward as a warm front on Sunday, ahead of another
cold front that will emerge off the Texas coast late Sat
night/early Sun morning. This second weak front will extend from
the mouth of the Mississippi River southwestward to near Veracruz
Mexico by late Sun, and from the Florida Panhandle to the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula by late Monday, followed by
moderate northerly winds.


An upper trough over the Caribbean is aiding the development of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across E Cuba,
Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Similar showers and thunderstorms ar over
N Colombia ans Venezuela. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE to E
surface winds persist off the coastlines of northwest Venezuela
to Colombia with 8 to 10 ft seas. Otherwise, moderate winds and
seas, accompanied by dry conditions persist across the basin.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will
maintain fresh to locally strong tradewind flow along the north
coast of South America tonight. These winds will expand northward
over the south central Caribbean into the southwest Caribbean
through Fri, then diminish somewhat late this weekend into early
next week. Northeasterly swell will increase east of the Leewards
tonight and Friday, then decay from west to east through Sun.


A cold front will move off the northeastern Florida coast by
tonight and reach from near Bermuda to south Florida by late Fri,
then stall from 26N65W to the Straits of Florida by late Sat.
Remnants of the front will lift northward on Sun ahead of another
cold front that will move eastward across the southeastern United
States and enter the northwest waters by late Tue.

Farther east, a 1033 mb high is centered near 34N37W producing
moderate to fresh trade winds over the deep tropics. Large long
period northerly swell persists, with 12 to 14 ft seas covering
the region north of 20N east of 50W, and 8 to 12 ft seas present
north of 12N and east of 55W.

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