Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 172359

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N14W
to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 03N30W to the coast
of South America near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection
within 60 nm either side of monsoon trough and ITCZ axes east of
21W and west of 39W.



A 1021 mb high centered over the north-east Gulf near 29N 85W,
continues to produce generally fair weather with mostly clear
skies across the basin. 10-15 kt anticyclonic surface winds are
over the Gulf with seas building to 7 ft over the west Gulf. Over
the southeastern Gulf, seas remain 4 to 6 ft due to lingering NW
swell following yesterday`s frontal passage. Visibility is
unrestricted across the Gulf.

The 1023 mb high will shift eastward and weaken through mid week
ahead of the next cold front that will move into the northern Gulf
on Thursday. The front should stall from southwestern Florida to
south Texas Fri, before lifting north as a warm front over Texas
on Saturday. Another late-season cold front will be approaching
the northwestern Gulf on Sunday.


A surface trough extends from the northwestern Caribbean near
19N83W to Honduras near 14N86W. Scattered light showers are south
of 19N and west of 84W. Another trough is over east Cuba along
76W. Isolated moderate convection is Cuba east of 78W. Fresh to
strong north to northeasterly winds continue west of this trough.,
especially in the Gulf of Honduras where seas are near 8 ft.
Brisk easterly trade winds of 20-25 kt continue just off the
coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.

Farther east, a broad mid to upper-level trough moving eastward
across the Lesser Antilles and into the tropical Atlantic has
suppressed shower activity in its wake over the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea. A surface trough west of the Lesser
Antilles is producing enhanced low cloudiness and perhaps a few
light showers. NE to E swell to 8 ft continue in the tropical
Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands.

The trough over east Cuba is expected to dissipate by tonight.
The trough over the eastern Caribbean will move westward through
Hispaniola and dissipate through mid week. A building ridge north
of the region will cause the area of winds and seas off Colombia
and Venezuela to expand in coverage across the south-central
Caribbean and into the southwestern Caribbean by late Wednesday
through late Friday. Strong winds are expected to continue off the
coast of Colombia through late Sat.


A cold front reaches from 32N65W to the south Bahamas. Scattered
showers and a isolated thunderstorms have been decreasing in both
coverage and intensity due to a strong upper-level trough lifting
out to the north of the area. Moderate W to SW winds are noted
north of 29N and within 120 nm either side of the front. Seas are
8 to 11 ft north of 30N west of 62W. Elsewhere over open waters,
seas are generally 5 to 7 ft.

The front should stall and weaken from 32N63W to south Bahamas by
late Wed, then dissipate on Thu as it lifts northward. Another
cold front will move off the Florida east coast late Thu and
extend from Bermuda to south Florida by late Fri, before stalling
from 25N65W to the Straits of Florida by late Sat.

Farther east, ridging north of 22N between 45W and 65W will erode
tonight, eventually giving way to the next approaching cold front
that will be arriivng from the north-central Atlantic. This front
will move east of 35W on Wed, accompanied by a large area of NW
swell with wave heights of 8-15 ft covering a large portion of the
area north of 20N and east of 45W Wed through Friday. Sea will
gradually decay to below 8 ft through Saturday.

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