255
FXUS61 KBGM 041905
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
305 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will be across the area this weekend, as a slow
moving front pushes through finally late Sunday. High pressure
looks to be short lived Monday and Tuesday, before another
frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through the rest
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Updated pops and sky cover a bit with the mid morning and
noontime updates, forecast discussion below on track.

630 am update...

Increased pops in the southern tier and Bradford county where
rain has moved into the area for now. Cameras show the road is
wet. Light rain/sprinkles coming out of a 10k deck. Increased
cloud cover since it is cloudy everywhere. There could be some
breaks still midday after the rain retreats back south for a few
hours.

330 am update...

A weak frontal boundary is producing some sprinkles early this
morning from Syracuse to Elmira and Troy PA. Rain is having a
hard time making it through the dry low levels. Rain and better
moisture over southwest and central PA will slowly creep
northeast into NEPA and the southern tier of CNY late this
afternoon and tonight for the rest of the area. Clouds are
already here and will remain through Sunday. Most of the rain
will fall late tonight and Sunday before moving east Sunday
night with a cold front. Rainfall totals will be mostly under an
inch. With clouds and cooler temperatures instability will be
tough to get today and tonight. Sunday afternoon there could be
a little instability but only a few models show this. Kept
thunderstorms out of the forecast for this period.

With little rain today high temperatures range from the mid 60s
along the I90 corridor to around 60 in the southern tier and
NEPA. Tonight low temperatures will be from the mid 40s to
around 50. Sunday high temperatures will range from the low 60s
in the Finger Lakes and central southern tier where the least
rain will fall to the mid 50s in the western Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...

A weak surface trough will slowly exit the region to the east
Monday morning. Lingering showers are expected to remain across
the Twin Tiers into the early afternoon hours, with a possible
rumble of thunder east of I-81 in NEPA. A ridge of high pressure
over the north central US will amplify Monday morning,
generating a surface high over the Great Lakes. This will slide
eastward during the day Monday, bringing NW flow and dry air
into the region. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

High pressure overhead Monday night will bring, mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies and very light to calm winds. This will be a
nice setup for radiational cooling, dropping temperatures into
the low to mid 40s. Currently not seeing any frost for our
growing zones, but we will have to monitor this as we get
closer.

Tuesday will be a wonderfully pleasant spring day as the ridge
and accompanying surface high moves overhead, bringing dry
weather and mostly sunny skies. Winds shift to WSW during the
afternoon, allowing some warmer temps to push into the Twin
Tiers. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s here, with low to
mid 70s to the north.

Tuesday night will not be as cool as the night before as SW
winds advect in a warm, moist airmass accompanied by increased
cloudiness. Temps will fall into the mid 50s for most, with
upper 50s in the Wyoming Valley and upper 40s in the Tug Hill
and Catskills.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
342 AM Update...

The nice, dry weather does not stick around for long as a
positively tilted upper level trough will sit over the eastern
US, pushing shortwave after shortwave through the region during
this period.

The first shortwave will push through Wednesday, bringing in a
warm front during the morning hours and scattered rain showers
to the region. Guidance is showing very low chances( <20%) of
CAPE reaching 500 j/kg across the Twin Tiers during the
afternoon. Rain showers will continue through the afternoon,
with a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm over NEPA.

The upper level trough will drift eastward through the end of
the week, pushing multiple shortwaves and associated rain
showers through the area Thursday through Sunday. The upper
level trough will move overhead Friday, keeping temps cool for
the weekend as a Canadian airmass slides in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gradual lowering of ceilings to MVFR this evening with showers
developing. Then IFR expected for most of the overnight through
the end of the TAF period at all TAF sites. Southerly winds
fairly consistent around 10 knots through the TAF period.
However, occasional gusts of 15-20 knots can not be ruled out.
Marginal LLWS can not be ruled out from 06-15Z Sunday but data
shows this as a lower chance of occurring at this time.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Sunday night... Showers ending with
ceilings lifting some in the afternoon then lowering again
Sunday night.

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then
becoming VFR.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Periods of showers with some
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MWG/TAC