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714
FXUS61 KBGM 100749
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
349 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Widespread rain showers will impact the area today, before
decreasing in coverage tonight. Additional on-and-off showers are
anticipated for this weekend, along with below normal
temperatures. A gradual warm-up is expected next week, but
showers will remain in the forecast.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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345 AM Update:

As a surface low passes to the south, a shortwave trough will be
pushing through the area today. This will set the stage for
widespread light to occasionally moderate rain showers. Despite
a prolonged period of rain, rates will be rather light. Flooding
is not a concern with this system due to the rather light
rainfall rates, combined with green-up underway or complete
across the area. With a cool airmass in place and the trough
moving through, temperatures will be cool for this time of the
year; mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s. This will make it feel
more like late March or early April, rather than early-mid May.

There will be some lingering showers tonight, with perhaps some
dry time heading into early Saturday as the first shortwave
trough departs to the east. Lingering low-level moisture should
keep skies mostly cloudy, but some patches of partial clearing
will be possible. With this lingering moisture, patchy fog will
also be possible. Lows are expected to be in the upper 30s to
upper 40s. There is a low potential for some patchy frost in any
areas of partial clearing, but with marginal temperatures and
still mainly cloudy skies, the chances are that this will not
occur.

The mainly dry period will be short-lived as yet another wave
approaches the area by Saturday afternoon. This will bring a
renewed chance for some showers, with perhaps a rumble of
thunder across the Finger Lakes Region. The best chance of rain
showers will be for areas west of I-81 (especially the Finger
Lakes Region). Farther south and east (towards the Poconos-
Catskills), conditions may remain mainly dry until Saturday
evening with perhaps some partial sunshine during the day.
Temperatures will again be cooler than normal, with highs
expected to be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update...

A shortwave trough moves over the region Saturday, bringing
colder air and showery conditions for the weekend. This
shortwave trough quickly passes eastward, allowing short-lived
ridging over the area Sunday evening into early Monday morning,
where a small break from the showery conditions are likely.
Chances for afternoon thunderstorms are possible, mainly for
areas west of I-81, on Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures
in the high-50s/low-60s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
255 PM Update...

Another shortwave moving over the Great Lakes will bring back
the rain showers for Monday. A weak warm front sets a boundary
across our area, increasing chances for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across the entire forecast area Monday. Monday
through Tuesday, as of now, seems like the most likely day for
thunder through the entire period, but severe storms are not
likely. Monday will be about 10 degrees warmer as the extension
of a weak warm front pushes into the area, with high
temperatures increasing into the high-60s/low-70s.

A disorganized system will supply deep southwesterly flow into
our region, continuing the showery conditions for Wednesday and
Thursday while increasing temperatures in the low- to mid-70s
through the midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Despite rain showers around, ceilings and visbys remain at VFR
as of 06Z. Still expecting this to become mainly MVFR to Fuel
Alternate over the next several hours. Despite guidance hinting
at IFR conditions this morning, this is looking less likely and
therefore kept restrictions no worse than Fuel Alternate for
now. Best chance for some IFR restrictions will actually be
tonight after the bulk of the rain moves out, as it is possible
that lingering low ceilings and/or fog/mist may be present.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Occasional rain showers may
bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass
through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions
possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is
uncertain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BJG