-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
442
FXUS61 KBGM 112219
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
619 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal system pushes into the region this evening kicking off
more rain showers. Showers are expected to continue through
Sunday with a brief break Sunday night, before the next frontal
system approaches Monday morning. An active pattern will
continue this week with unsettled weather through at least mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
Sped up the timing heading into the evening hours with the
arrival of the next round of more widespread showers. Previous
discussion below.


220 PM Update:

Unsettled weather will continue through most of the period with
just brief high pressure Sunday night into Monday morning.

Weak surface low pressure and upper level shortwave trough will
push across the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, kicking
off more widespread showers tonight. Out ahead of this system,
we are seeing a few diurnal rain showers popping up across
central NY. The diurnal heating, aided with the cool air aloft,
could produce an isolated rumble of thunder.

The low will fill and become vertically stacked overnight into
Sunday as it moves over Central NY. This will keep shower chance
up through the day tomorrow, especially with diurnal heating
during the afternoon hours. This low moves east of the area by
Sunday evening which will allow for showers to gradually taper
off and should see some clearing in the clouds overnight into
early Monday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
330PM Update

Upper level low moves east of our region Monday morning with a
brief ridge attempting to build in. Mostly sunny skies are
expected early in the day with clouds beginning to increase in
the afternoon as a front system approaches. This kicks off more
rain showers and possible thunderstorms mainly focusing over NY
with only slight chance Pops over northeast PA. Expecting light
QPF with this system with amounts up to a few tenths of an
inch. Temperatures Monday remain relatively cool with highs
ranging in the mid to upper 60s across the region. Rain showers
are expected to continue overnight with lows in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330PM Update

A surface low over the great lakes approaches our region on Tuesday
with a slow moving cold front keeping the threat of rain and
isolated thunderstorms in place. Meanwhile an upper level low over
the midwest begins to move eastwards Wednesday bringing
additional moisture advection into the region. This allows
showers and thunderstorms to persist through Wednesday as well.
Model guidance begins to diverge from Wednesday night through
the remaining period. GFS shows a faster resolution with the
upper low weakening into a trough and exiting by Thursday
morning... resulting in drier conditions. EURO shows the upper
low lingering through Thursday evening allowing rain showers to
continue into Thursday as well. Went with NBM Pops to account
for timing differences this far out. Temperatures during this
period will range in the mid 60s to mid 70s during the day with
lows falling into the mid 40s to mid 50s overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon, however
another frontal system moves in this evening from the west. This
will bring IFR to MVFR restrictions through the overnight hours.
There will be some improvement tomorrow morning, but MVFR
ceilings will likely continue into Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Thursday...Occasional rain showers may
bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass
through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions
possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is
uncertain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MPK