508
FXUS61 KBGM 070716
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
316 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Brief high pressure will result in a sunny pleasant day.
However, a warm front tonight will bring showers and a chance
of thunder, followed by a cold front Wednesday which may produce
isolated yet gusty afternoon thunderstorms. On-and-off chances
for rain will continue later this week as multiple disturbances
pass through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 AM Update...
After a quick respite today, a warm front tonight followed by a
cold front Wednesday will bring showers and a chance of
thunder. Main near term concern is the potential for isolated
yet gusty severe thunderstorms Wednesday.

Shield of high thin clouds is finally pressing off to the east,
allowing for radiational cooling of a dry air mass in Central
New York yet still some residual boundary layer moisture
persists in Northeast Pennsylvania along with a few clouds. As
such, there is quite a contrast in temperatures during the
predawn hours, from near 40 degrees north to upper 50s south. A
few spots may even find upper 30s in our typically coldest spots
such as the upper Susquehanna tributary headwaters.

High pressure will pass over the region today, with mixing down
of low dewpoints from the very dry air above the boundary layer.
That and full sunshine should help maximize diurnal range to
highs of around 70-80 degrees, and minimum relative humidity in
the upper 20s to upper 30s percent range except still 40s
percent in higher terrain surrounding the Wyoming Valley. Winds
will be very light.

The weak high exits quickly, as a warm front surges into the
area overnight well ahead of low pressure approaching from the
Upper Midwest. There will be instability aloft, so the quickly
advancing showers may be accompanied by elevated embedded
thunderstorms. Rain amounts tonight are forecast to range from a
tenth or two of an inch south and central to more like three to
four tenths of an inch for the NY Thruway counties.

Wednesday is starting to look fairly interesting. The warm
frontal zone will lift to our northern zones in the morning,
laying a track for the approaching low to zip through the area
during the afternoon followed by a sagging cold front. This
will be forced by a jet maximum aloft which will advect in an
elevated mixed layer, with steep mid to upper level lapse rates
and potential for top-heavy Convective Available Potential
Energy (CAPE). Source region of that elevated unstable mixed
layer is all the way from the Four Corners region. The risk for
severe thunderstorms is there, yet conditional, because coverage
will be limited by the amount of dry air aloft even if
unstable. Model soundings suggest biggest threat will be cold-
pool driven gusty winds, with an inverted-V profile south of the
frontal zone which will promote good mixing down. Unidirectional
deep shear will also be quite strong; flow to the tune of 60-80
knots at 6 km. Top-heavy CAPE from the elevated mixed layer
aloft also points to a risk of hail as well. Since almost the
whole area will get into the warm sector, highs Wednesday will
be in the 70s to lower 80s except it may struggle to get out of
the 60s in northern Oneida County.

Again, though cells may be isolated in coverage Wednesday
afternoon, they could be potent with damaging gusts and hail
while also moving along very quickly due to strong deep flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

Any remaining showers or thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday
evening. Low pressure north of the Ohio Valley will slowly move
east through the night, and a few showers may work into western
parts of the CWA before dawn Thursday. This low looks to track
into western PA Thursday, after which its track becomes a little
more uncertain. Either way, rain showers will spread south to
north across NEPA and CNY, north of a warm front draped across
the Mid Atlantic. Precip will linger across the area Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Forecast confidence goes off the rails in the long term. Low
pressure will likely be located somewhere in eastern NY or NEPA
Friday morning, with rain showers continuing. The GFS slowly
lifts the low north towards the Saint Lawrence Valley, while the
ECMWF is far weaker and progressive. Ensembles suggest a wide
range of possible solutions between Friday afternoon and
Saturday evening in terms of precip chances. Kept lower-end
PoPs for Friday Night into the first part of Saturday as we may
end up in a break between systems. The next system looks to
bring another round of rain showers to the area later Sunday,
pushing east of the area Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through today with high pressure in
control. There will be subtle diurnally-influenced fluctuations
in wind direction, with speeds mostly under 5 knots. A warm
front will quickly approach the area this evening which will
cause a ceiling to develop, though above 15000 feet. Showers and
embedded thunder are forecast to sweep southwest to northeast
across the terminals with associated restrictions later tonight
after 06Z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Late Tuesday night-Wednesday morning....Restrictions likely
with rain showers along a warm front; embedded thunder possible.

Wednesday afternoon-early evening...While mostly VFR, isolated
yet gusty thunderstorms will be possible.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Periods of showers with some
restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region,
especially Thursday-Friday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...MDP