Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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504 FXUS61 KBGM 020654 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 254 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather has returned thru Friday. Temperatures will remain above average for early May. Then, a brief cool down with periods of rain showers is expected for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 605 PM Update... No major changes with this update. Blended current observations into the forecast. Near-term forecast remains on track. 200 PM Update... Clouds are slowly dissipating early this afternoon as drier air mixes into the boundary layer from aloft. Clear to mostly clear skies are expected tonight as a surface high slides off to the east. Southerly winds will pick up overnight and with dry air mixing in, decided to keep fog out of the grids for the overnight hours. A cold front moving through as a weak low passes through to the north early tomorrow morning with sprinkles added to much of CNY as the front should be mostly dry but a few isolated showers can not be ruled out. Ridging begins to build in tomorrow with NW flow advecting in cooler air so highs will be a little cooler than today. Dry weather will continue through Thursday night with the ridge axis approaching. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 250 AM Update... Friday night will be mostly dry as rain showers edge into the Finger Lakes and central southern tier of CNY. Lows in the 40s in NEPA and the Catskills to the low and mid 50s in the Finger Lakes. A slow moving cold front approaches while high pressure remains off the coast. Increasing low level winds will bring in moisture from the southwest ahead of the front. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms will be across the area late Saturday into late Sunday. An inch of rain is possible but after several dry days this shouldn`t do much. Highs in the 60s Saturday will drop Sunday into the 50s east of I81 where the rain will last longer. Lows Saturday night from the mid 40s to around 50 rise to upper 40s and lower 50s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 250 AM Update... Monday and Monday night will be mainly dry with weak high pressure over the area. Tuesday morning may also be dry as models slow the onset some with the next front. This strong front goes through on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms could continue on Thursday with another fast moving system. High temperatures rise to be the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday and maybe Thursday. Low temperatures Monday night in the upper 40s to around 50 rise into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday nights. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions can be expected through the period with high pressure building into the region today. There will be a weak disturbance passing across northern NY this morning and there is a small chance for MVFR rain showers at RME during the early morning hours, however confidence is too low at this time so added -SHRA with Tempo group, but left conditions VFR with those passing showers this morning. Model guidance has also pulled back on the chances for MVFR ceilings at RME after sunrise today, so have removed any restrictions from the previous forecast with this update. Otherwise, VFR clouds will diminish and clear out by mid to late afternoon today and winds turn west- northwest with gusts of 10-20 kts. Outlook... Friday...Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t`storms possible. Saturday into Monday...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG/TAC NEAR TERM...AJG/KL SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...AJG/MPK