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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190757
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
357 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier yet cloudy this morning before another cold front ushers
in scattered showers this afternoon and evening. We turn breezy
and cooler for the weekend with some rain or even snow showers
possible Saturday afternoon and evening. A dry stretch of
weather is finally expected Sunday through Tuesday seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Only minor changes with the mid evening update. Previous below.

Early this evening we are watching some drizzle move through
the region. So expanded the coverage of drizzle with this
update. A general dreary night is still expected. Previous
discussion below.

Heading into tonight, any partial clearing early on will
quickly fade behind cloudy skies as Canadian high pressure
continues to build into northern New England. Despite the
increased low-level moisture, guidance maintains a mainly dry
forecast tonight as our washed-out warm front lifts eastward and
upper level ridging and mid-level dry air build into further
into the Northeast. However, some pockets of drizzle may linger,
especially in NE PA and the Catskills, at least through
Midnight as low-level southeast flow upslopes the terrain.
Otherwise, we will not see a large diurnal change tonight given
clouds. Overnight temperatures only cooling into the mid to
upper 30s in the Catskills, Mohawk Valley and NE PA with low to
mid 40s in the Southern Tier, Fingers Lakes, and towards
Syracuse.

Cloudy skies continue tomorrow with temperatures turning milder
in comparison to today with much of the region warming into the
50s to low 60s as shortwave ridging continues overhead. Upstream
we have a closed upper level low positioned north of the Great
Lakes with its associated occluded sfc low near the Hudson Bay.
An attendant cold front will be tracking eastward from the Ohio
Valley into the Northeast. A few weak shortwave embedded in the
southwest flow aloft look to allow a secondary sfc low to
develop along the thermal/moisture gradient as the front
reaches west/central NY. Overall moisture is not very impressive
but with the secondary sfc low will likely provide additional
forcing for showers to continue and spread into the Twin Tiers,
the Finger Lakes eastwards towards the Catskills, NE PA, and
the Mohawk Valley. Best chance for showers looks to be tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow evening and have maintained widespread
chance POPs with even likely POPs west of I-81 by 18 - 21 UTC.
Overall QPF is light with around a tenth expected. Higher
amounts ranging 0.25 - 0.40 inches expected in Oneida County
where some lake enhanced moisture can contribute to increased
QPF.

The boundary looks to weaken as it reaches the Catskills Fri
night with the thermal and moisture gradient becoming less
defined. The boundary may slow down overnight so have
maintained slight chance and low end chance POPs east of the
Susquehanna River into the southeast Catskills. Otherwise,
clearing should ensue behind the front as westerly flow ushers
in a drier air mass. Overnight lows turn cooler dropping into
the mid to upper 30s with low 40s in valley areas thanks to some
radiational cooling. Winds become a bit elevated behind the
front becoming sustained 5 - 12kts overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
300 AM Update...

A very large scale upper level trough centered over the Hudson
Bay, combined with a low level high pressure system building
into the region from the west will be the main weather drivers
for this period.

NW flow over the region will advect in colder than normal
temperatures Saturday night, with lows falling into the upper
20s to mid 30s across the region. High pressure at the surface
will suppress lake effect cloud and shower development, bringing
mostly clear skies overnight.

The cold air regime remains overhead Sunday, with continued NW
flow keeping afternoon highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s
across much of the region. Winds are expected to pick up Sunday
afternoon across NY as a cold front moves into the area from the
north, blowing out of the west at 12-17mph with gusts up to
25mph. The atmosphere will be dry so precipitation is not
expected with this frontal passage.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected to move into the
region Sunday night, keeping temperatures in the upper 20s to
low 30s across the region.

Cold air remains across most of the region Monday as the trough
stubbornly hangs around. A surface high and associated ridge
will build into the region during the afternoon hours, but not
quick enough to allow warmer air to move into NY. Temperatures
Monday will be in the upper 40s to low mid 50s across NY, with
colder temperatures up north. NEPA will see more influence from
the ridge, pushing afternoon highs into the upper 50s. The
center of the high will move over the region Monday night, which
should allow for radiational cooling to drop temps into the low
to mid 30s, even with warmer air aloft building into the
region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
345 AM Update

The next storm system is expected to move into the region
sometime Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning. Guidance is
still a little off on the timing but it does agree that a
trough will dig into the Great Lakes region, generating a
surface low that will pass north of us and push a cold front and
rain showers into the region Wednesday. A secondary shortwave
will fill in behind this front as the overall trough pattern
rotates from positively to negatively tilted. This brings a
reinforcing shot of cold air into the region Wednesday night
and Thursday. A rain/snow mix will be possible across the NE
portion of the CWA as light showers hang around. With the
center of the upper trough overhead Thursday, temps will still
be cold and lingering rain/snow showers cannot be ruled out.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM Update

MVFR Fuel Alternate CIGs at AVP and RME are expected to persist
for the rest of the overnight and most of the morning hours.
Meanwhile, ELM and ITH are IFR and are forecast to remain so
through around daybreak. SYR and BGM are LIFR, with SYR expected
to jump up to just IFR in the next 1-2 hours, and remain there
until around daybreak (10z).

BGM will slowly improve out of LIFR, to IFR by mid-morning
(14z) then fuel alt, and just MVFR CIGs for the early afternoon.
The same gradual trend for improvement will occur at the rest of
our taf sites as well, with most back to MVFR or low VFR by
16-18z this afternoon. SYR looks to reach VFR for a time late
morning and early afternoon, before the next front moves in
bringing renewed restrictions. Conditions fall back to MVFR
Fuel Alt areawide after about 21-22z today...then even back to
IFR at BGM and AVP expected this evening. There will be
occasional periods of light rain or showers in this timeframe
over the region.

Drier air begins working in from the west, with fast rising
CIGs at the tail end of this TAF period; ELM, ITH, SYR and
perhaps RME rise to VFR by 04-06z Saturday...reaching BGM and
AVP by 06-09z early Saturday morning.

Southeast winds increase today, between 8-15 kts with occasional
gusts around 20-25 kts this afternoon. Winds shift southwest,
then westerly behind the front this evening...while also
decreasing back down around 10 kts.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. Occasional MVFR CIGs/VSBYs
possible for CNY terminals in the afternoon with sct`d showers.

Sunday...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR expected.

Tuesday...VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM/TAC
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...ES/MJM