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056
FXUS61 KBGM 050803
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
403 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers across the region will end late today or this evening.
On Monday high pressure builds in with dry weather that lasts
into Tuesday. Low pressure systems will bring additional
showers from Wednesday through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 am update...

Rain has moved into the entire area now and will continue into
the afternoon as a slow moving warm front moves east. The front
will push through this afternoon. Tonight rain showers will be
lighter as a dying front moves through with limited moisture.
Monday there could be a few lingering light showers from the
southern tier into NEPA. Rainfall totals will be around half an
inch for most but along I90 in Oneida County amounts could be
over an inch. In Oneida a little better low level convergence
and lift. Still nothing to worry about in respect to flooding.

Highs today in the 50s for most but some clearing may get into
the central southern tier and Finger Lakes late afternoon so
highs there around 60. Tonight lows from the upper 40s to mid
50s. Monday more sunshine so highs from the upper 60s to the mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
4 AM Update...

High pressure building in Monday night will lead to clearing
skies with light northerly winds. This will set us up for a
relatively chilly night, with lows dipping into the lower-40s
across portions of CNY. Noticed the old MET MOS guidance is
going for 37 at ITH, and the NBM 5th Percentile also indicates
upper-30s across a wider area. This is likely a little on the
low side, though sheltered valleys could drop just below 40.

Southerly flow will bring a quick rebound in temperatures on
Tuesday, which is shaping up to be a fine day across the whole
area, as highs reach well into the 70s with light winds and
Mostly Sunny skies. Clouds will begin to increase Tuesday
evening as weak low pressure heads across the Lower Great Lakes.
A warm front ahead of this system will bring some rain showers
to the area Tuesday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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4 AM Update...

Showers will lift north towards the Thruway along with the warm
front early Wednesday, but with weak low pressure drifting ESE
across NY state, the cold front won`t be far behind, spreading
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the area later
Wednesday morning into early afternoon. Lowered temperatures a
few degrees north of the Twin Tiers where precip will be more
prevalent. Otherwise, we still look to hold onto 70s Wednesday
across the region.

The Wednesday system will usher in a rather unsettled period
with temperatures cooling through the weekend. The next system
looks to bring widespread rain showers to the area Thursday as
low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley, and weak low
pressure develops off the Delmarva Peninsula. Low pressure looks
to stall out across the lower Great Lakes heading into the
weekend, with possible further coastal low development helping
to keep precip slung back across the area. Rain showers look to
continue into the weekend, and highs on Saturday could well be
stuck in the 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 AM Update...

Rain showers have moved north to all of the sites now. SYR/RME
are still VFR but should fall to MVFR cigs by 08z, then to fuel
alternate by 10z. RME will fall to IFR cig and MVFR vsby around
14z. SYR falls to IFR cig around 01z as the rain ends.

The other sites are all MVFR fuel alternate. IFR cigs by 08z at
BGM/AVP and 09z at ELM and 13z at ITH. IFR continues through
this evening despite rain ending around 00z.

Southeast winds mostly at 5 to 10 kts early this morning except
ITH/BGM 10 gust 20. During the day most sites 10 gust 20 kts
except AVP/ELM at 5 to 10 kts still.

Outlook...

Overnight tonight...Widespread IFR to even LIFR restrictions
continue areawide.

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then
becoming VFR.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Periods of showers with some
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...TAC