-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 240545
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
145 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching storm system will bring gusty winds and
increasing clouds to the area this evening. Rain showers will
increase overnight through Wednesday morning, with cooler
weather moving in Wednesday and Wednesday night. Warmer and
drier conditions will return for the end of the week, but more
rain is on the way for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
550 PM Update...

Slowed down the onset of the rainfall this evening by a couple
of hours. Observations across the region are still showing a 30+
dewpoint dewpoint depression so it is going to take some time
to saturate the low levels. Current radar returns in our CWA is
simply VIRGA and over the next couple of hours there may be a
few sprinkles that survive the trip to the surface. Otherwise,
any measurable rainfall will not occur until after 8 or 9 pm
tonight across our far western counties and slowly push eastward
through the overnight hours.

245 PM Update...

Satellite imagery shows increasing high clouds moving into CNY,
while lower clouds and scattered showers extend across the
Ontario Peninsula into the Midwest states. Some radar returns
are also noted around Rochester, but with drier air prevalent in
the low levels (note 30-40 degree sfc dewpoint depressions),
this is almost certainly virga.

So the the overall forecast thinking is mostly unchanged. Light
showers currently over Ontario will work into the western
Finger Lakes around or shortly after sunset this evening, but
will tend to weaken as they head east of I-81. Additional
showers will overspread the region after midnight into Wednesday
morning, still favoring CNY over NEPA. Shower activity will
diminish towards midday, with a dry end to the day.

In the meantime, we`ll still have some gusty winds to contend
with through around sunset, though overall gusts appear to be
peaking now in the 25 to 29 knot range. RH values have dropped
deep into the 20-25% range, and SPS statements for fire weather
will continue through dusk.

Temperature-wise, kept the last update intact as SYR is on the
cusp of 70, and ELM not far behind. It`ll be cooler tomorrow
with highs in the upper-40s and lower-50s across CNY, with 50s
over much of NEPA, but near 60 in the Wyoming Valley.

A cooler airmass, coupled with ideal conditions for radiational
cooling Wed night will drop lows into the lower to middle 20s
area-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM update...

A quiet period is in store as high pressure will be in control
with dry air. The high starts over the Great Lakes Thursday then
drops southeast through our area Thursday night to be on the
coast Friday. Aloft an upper level trough slowly moves east as a
ridge axis moves to Ohio Friday. Low level winds start out from
the north then shift to the south and southwest Friday. This
will provide warming. High temperatures go from the 50s Thursday
to the upper 50s to mid 60s Friday. Sunny skies Thursday become
mostly sunny Friday. Lows will be in the upper 20s and lower
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM update...

The upper level ridging expands over our area this weekend then
moves slowly east on Tuesday. Despite the high upper level
heights this will be an unsettled period. A north to south warm
front moves east through CNY/NEPA on Saturday with rain
showers. A stationary front will be across northern NY keeping
some showers around Saturday night into Sunday with better
chances in NY. Sunday night into Monday with the upper level
ridge stronger it should be dry. More showers will approach late
Monday through Tuesday with better chances in CNY again. With
the warm and increasingly moist air mass, diurnal showers and
thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday.

With the ridge and the deep southwest flow temperatures will
swing to be well above normal for late April. High temperatures
go from the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday to be in the 70s
Sunday to Tuesday. Temperatures peak Monday in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Tuesday could be just as warm if the system slows.
Lows start out in the 30s Friday night then rise into the 50s
Sunday night and Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry air has prevailed in the low levels so VFR conditions
persist at all terminals and based off of upstream observations
will likely stay VFR for a few more hours. Decided to put in
MVFR tempos rather than predominant as cigs likely will not fall
until closer to the time the cold front approaches later this
morning. Still decent low level moisture behind the cold front
will likely lead to some IFR conditions at higher elevated NY
terminals like ITH but lower confidence with IFR at other NY
terminals. BGM may sneak into some IFR at times but confidence
is low and a tempo may be added for the 12Z update. Dry air
moves in this afternoon with VFR conditions returning to all
terminals by 0Z.

Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR, possible fog at ELM.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers, especially in the afternoon and evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...MPK/MPH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...AJG/KL