439
FXUS61 KBGM 032346
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
746 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will give way to a slow moving frontal boundary
that will push through the area Sunday. High pressure looks to
be short lived early next week before another frontal boundary
and areas of low pressure move through most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
645 PM Update...

There was not much to change with this update. Sky cover was
lowered some, at least until the showers from the west move in.
The slow moving showers are expected to move in later this
evening, so PoPs were left untouched for now. Temperatures and
dew points were touched up based on the latest conditions. Most
locations are still in the 70s. Otherwise, conditions remain
quiet for now as we monitor the showers in western NY and PA.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure in place across our region will attempt to slow
down a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. This should
keep most of the showers with the front west and south of the
region through most of Saturday. Though a few of the models have
a glancing blow from some light showers in NE PA and west of
the Finger Lakes in NY. Coverage of showers should ramp up
Saturday night given increasing moisture and lift ahead of the
frontal boundary. QPF through Saturday night looks to be a half
inch or less, so no concern for flooding issues. Instability
also looks to be very little if any does happen to develop.

Temperatures tonight look to be a few degrees warmer due to
clouds only falling to around 50 then struggle to rise into the
low 60`s on Saturday. Lows look to end up a few degrees cooler
Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
120 PM Update...

Zonal flow pattern aloft keeps conditions relatively active during
this period. Rain showers are expected to continue on Sunday as an
occluded front slowly moves eastwards. Meanwhile a low pressure
system over the Great Lakes drags a cold front into our region by
Sunday evening. This will bring more showers with a few
thunderstorms possible in the evening hours. Rainfall amounts are up
to a quarter inch but any evening thunderstorms that develop could
drop an inch of rain. Instability parameters are weak on model
guidance, therefore not expecting much concern with these storms.
Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs ranging in the low 50s to low
60s. Overnight temperatures are not expected to deviate far off
of daytime highs. Lows will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers
Monday through Monday night. Not expecting a lot of rain with this
system as the levels remain relatively dry. Precip chances are more
favorable to the south of our region. Otherwise once this weak
system moves thorough conditions remain dry overnight with brief high
pressure building in over the Great Lakes. Temperatures on
Monday will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the afternoon
and fall into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
120 PM Update...

A warm front draped over the midwest approaches the region on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows some timing differences in the
arrival of this system. Regardless showers are expected to move
in at least by the evening time frame and last overnight. This
should leave most of Tuesday precipitation free. As of now
Tuesday appears to be the driest day during this period. Warm
front passes sometime Wednesday through Thursday bringing in
more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms. Similar pattern
continues into Friday as well with yet another disturbance
moving into the region. Otherwise temperatures during this
period will remain mild with highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s
and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

745 PM Update

VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide through tonight,
and much of the day on Saturday. Expect just sct to bkn mid and
high level clouds around during this timeframe. Later Saturday
afternoon; after 18-21z Saturday CIGs do begin to lower into the
MVFR and perhaps MVFR Fuel Alt category at AVP as periods of
light rain begin. Overall trends are for higher CIGS and less
rain further north Saturday afternoon/evening, for locations
such as BGM and ELM which look to remain generally lower end VFR
through the end of this taf period. ITH, SYR and RME are
forecast to remain solidly VFR through early Saturday evening,
with again, just a mix of mid and high level clouds.

Winds are east-southeast up to around 10 kts overnight into
Saturday morning. These winds turn more southeasterly and
increase between 5 to 15 kts, with a few gusts to 20 kts
possible late in the day.

Outlook...

Saturday evening through Sunday night...Periods of rain will
bring restrictions to the entire forecast area. Looking mainly
MVFR to MVFR fuel Alternate, but some occasional IFR
restrictions are also possible, mainly on Sunday.

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then
likely becoming VFR later in the day.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Increasing chance of rain and
restrictions. Embedded thunder also possible on Wednesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...BTL/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MJM/MWG