Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 221028 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 628 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A northerly flow of cold air will continue across the area into the weekend. With that cold air will come scattered snow showers from time to time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface gradient does not weaken as the storm deepens as it moves slowly off to the east. This will keep a north flow of cold air over the area through the day, becoming gusty as mixing brings some of the stronger winds down near the surface. There will be a a decent amount of clouds around in the cold advection, but flurries are not expected with limited moisture and the very cold lake. Temperatures will be cold enough for all snow, even in the afternoon and despite the Spring sun. Max temps Friday will be a good 10 degrees below normal, along with a damp and gusty north wind. Little change expected Friday night as the upper low meanders off to the east. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 500 mb closed low passes across the area late tonight and on Friday bringing deeper moisture, increased instability, and eventually scattered snow showers, especially over the NY zones. Even with the continued presence of an upper-level trough over the Northeast, a transient surface high passing east of Hudson Bay should allow Saturday to be mainly dry for most of the forecast area. As the day progresses, though, synoptic scale forcing will likely increase over our region as the center of the upper low pivots southeastward toward the coast. This may aid in the development of some light snow showers over parts of the forecast area by Saturday night. Little, if any, accumulation is expected at this time. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper trough axis remains near the Northeast U.S. coast at the start of the long term period. A weak surface trough, combined with additional shortwave energy to bring a little bit of light precipitation to eastern parts of the region (mainly) during the morning. Forecast soundings suggest that the dominant precip type will likely be snow, but given the drying that`s expected to occur in the boundary layer during the morning, coverage/amounts appear to be limited at this time. This system should move farther offshore Sunday night into Monday, as the next upper-level trough digs into the western part of the country. Downstream amplification of the flow aloft will result in ridging (generally both at the surface and aloft) across our region for early next week. Given temperatures at 850mb approaching 5 degrees Celsius by Tuesday afternoon, especially over western parts of the forecast area, I can`t rule out a few locations reaching 50 degrees. The most likely result, though, will be near normal afternoon temperatures for late March, with most places in the middle and upper 40s. Ridging will start losing its grip on our weather Tuesday night. The upper trough over the western U.S. is expected to head east, allowing a cold front to reach from the U.P. of Michigan into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday morning. Closer to home, atmospheric moisture will deepen in a strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. This should result in greater odds of seeing precipitation beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday as a warm front moves northward over the area and the cold front inches closer. It`s really too early to pinpoint a precipitation type at this range given inherent uncertainty present for Days 6 and 7 of the forecast. Medium range models, however, indicate warm advection developing in the 850-700 mb layer at some point Tuesday night or Wednesday. Forecast soundings are latching onto this as well, with a saturated profile and a warm nose indicated within the layer. Based on available information, I think we might start out as wintry or mixed precipitation Tuesday night. Everything should become a cold rain at some point Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected into tonight. East coast snow storm will continue to pull east leaving drier air and a north flow over the area. Winds will become gustier after sunrise as the low spins up and mixing brings higher winds to the surface. A VFR SC deck will likely develop, but no snow showers are expected. Winds become lighter again tonight as the gradient weakens. Tonight, and upper low passes across the region bringing deeper moisture and a continued north flow. This will likely bring a MVFR deck to may stations, and perhaps a few snow flurries. Outlook... Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR. A period of lower ceilings is possible Thursday night into Friday.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM SHORT TERM...DAB/DGM LONG TERM...DAB AVIATION...DGM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.